January 14, 2005
CIA has India surpassing Europe in 15 yearsNews
A new CIA report titled ‘Mapping the Global Future’ projects that India will overtake major European countries by GDP within 15 years:
By 2020, China’s gross domestic product, the total value of goods and services, will be greater than that of any Western country except the United States, and India’s GDP will have overtaken or will be about to overtake European economies.
The National Intelligence Council, a division of the CIA, makes some very interesting comparisons:
… the NIC said China and India, probably along with Brazil and Indonesia, should emerge as “new major global players,” comparing their expected impact to that of a united Germany in the 19th century and the United States in the early 20th century. “In the same way that commentators refer to the 1900s as the ‘American Century,’ the 21st century may be seen as the time when Asia, led by China and India, comes into its own…”
The NIC is confident in its projections:
“Barring an abrupt reversal of the process of globalization or any major upheavals in these countries, the rise of these new powers (China and India) is a virtual certainty,” it predicted.
There will be a geopolitical realignment…
As India’s economy grows, governments in Southeast Asia — Malaysia, Singapore, Thailand, and other countries — may move closer to India to help build a potential geopolitical counterweight to China, it said… Dubbing China, India, and perhaps others such as Brazil and Indonesia, as ‘arriviste’ powers, the report said they “have the potential to render obsolete the old categories of East and West, North and South, aligned and nonaligned, developed and developing.”
… an expansion of military power…
“A combination of sustained high economic growth, expanding military capabilities, and large populations will be at the root of the expected rapid rise in economic and military power for both countries.”
… and a cultural realignment as well:
Changes will be experienced… even culturally, as Korean pop singers gain international popularity and India’s Bollywood movie industry outshines Hollywood.
The full report says it’s possible India could overtake China as well, but unlikely:
… China’s ability to sustain its current pace is probably more at risk than is India’s; should China’s growth slow by several percentage points, India could emerge as the world’s fastest-growing economy as we head towards 2020.
manish on January 14, 2005 09:34 PM in News, Politics · T·r·a·c·k·b·a·c·k address · Direct link · Email post
¤ Winds of Change.NET said: Robi & Nitin's Indian Ocean Horizons: 2005-1-25
nice!!!!
I do believe that India will have a GDP that will be comparable with most major European with in 15 years but the problem is GDP per capita and Standard of living.
It will take India more then 15 years to increase these index's to an acceptable level (IMHO)
Anyway go India!!! :D
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/6804125/site/newsweek
Not particularly on the exact topic, but it has a paragraph that relates to the subject at hand. A friend sent me this article and quoted the paragraph below as an interesting comment.
"China is following the East Asian model, with a strong government promoting and regulating capitalist growth. Historically, this has been the most effective way out of poverty. But India might well be forging a new path, of necessity, with society making up for the deficiencies of the state. Actually, this is not entirely new. In some ways India's messy development resembles that of another large, energetic, chaotic country where society has tended to loom larger than the stateâthe United States of America. It is a parallel to keep in mind."
Time to move the money to India. For what it's worth, these are the same guys who said (or were forced to say) that Iraq had WMDs.
Very funny and prescient, Karthik R.
Remember 15 year ago? Everyone said Japan would overtake the US and become the world's superpower. But now, such predictions look like pure quackery.
China and India seem like two very different cases. I don't think China can continue to grow as fast as it did. They have billions of dollars in bad loans and their socialist style government seems reluctant to strengthen its banking structures.
But India seems like it can go much farther. An educated segment that wants more education. Stronger financial systems. An economy that's in the process of transforming to service-oriented businesses. Let's hope the government doesn't muck things up again (I'm talking about corruption, bribes, etc), like it always wants to do.
I was thinking the same thing about CIA predictions! "Slam dunks" on WMD and not knowing about Indian nuclear testing. Not exactly a perfect track record. But an interesting report, nonetheless. Whether India will surpass the EU countries or not in terms of growth, it will be interesting to see how increased growth is translated to the population and how the lives of ordinary Indians will change.
China will surely spilt up shorty and so will its economy those who invest in china are sure to pack their bags as soon as the signals become clearer.
Indias economy is sure to rise and will become an booming economy by 2020 the world as nothing to fear for india is an democratic country driven by educated people who love freedom.
The world prospers if India prospers
For freedom and democracy its a big triumph if India outshines as soon as possible.
The CIA report may be assuming that Europe will continue on its current trajectory. Winds of change are everywhere--in Europe too. Who knows, it might be a united Europe that ends up the dominant economy.
I don't know about the Indian economy but that country has a 100 years to go before the disgusting communal, casteist and stinking conservative religious attitudes change....
I don't know about the Indian economy but that country has a 100 years to go before the disgusting communal, casteist and stinking conservative religious attitudes change....
I think an united europe will be de next superpower
China will need 30 years to be at the level of europe an america
India will need 35 years
in the next years there is only EU as a potentially superpower
I wonder weather this prediction was made on basis of nominal or real GDP. In REAL GDP(PPP$), india is presently number three at 5.2 trillion ppp dollars second only to united states and china.(this is after prices are adjusted at par with american dollars in US). At nominal exchange rates, india is at 1.25 trillion but this hardly means anything at all since the price structure in india is totally different. Not to mention that the indian government tries its level best to de evaluate the rupee as much as possible in order to keep exports competitive( influenced by the exporting and MNC lobbies). So, I think the CIA predictions are under optimistic. If they are talking about nominal gdp, which grew at 35% between 2006-2007(from 0.8 to 1.1 trillion), india would be overtaking germany in less than a decade depending on the exchange rates at that time. If you are talking about real GDP however, india is already at number three and thus the predictions are worthless. Real GDP in india grows at around 8 to 9 percent a year right now which will be reaching double digit rates by 2010, this shouldbe overtaking america's present level in about 10 years. Basically, india's GDP per capita is sure to quadruple by 2020 taking it from $4700 to $18,800 (PPP) while still registering decent growth. This is about a bit less than present levels of lower income DEVELOPED economies like south korea, spain, australia etc. So, comfortably, one can estimate india will be a DEVELOPED ECONOMY by 2020.
I wonder wether this prediction was made on basis of nominal or real GDP. In REAL GDP(PPP$), india is presently number three at 5.2 trillion ppp dollars second only to united states and china.(this is after prices are adjusted at par with american dollars in US). At nominal exchange rates, india is at 1.25 trillion but this hardly means anything at all since the price structure in india is totally different. Not to mention that the indian government tries its level best to de evaluate the rupee as much as possible in order to keep exports competitive( influenced by the exporting and MNC lobbies). So, I think the CIA predictions are under optimistic. If they are talking about nominal gdp, which grew at 35% between 2006-2007(from 0.8 to 1.1 trillion), india would be overtaking germany in less than a decade depending on the exchange rates at that time. If you are talking about real GDP however, india is already at number three and thus the predictions are worthless. Real GDP in india grows at around 8 to 9 percent a year right now which will be reaching double digit rates by 2010, this shouldbe overtaking america's present level in about 10 years. Basically, india's GDP per capita is sure to quadruple by 2020 taking it from $4700 to $18,800 (PPP) while still registering decent growth. This is about a bit less than present levels of lower income DEVELOPED economies like south korea, spain, australia etc. So, comfortably, one can estimate india will be a DEVELOPED ECONOMY by 2020.
india will surely become a superpower
