After decades of advocating Tibetan independence, India now accepts Chinese control of Tibet, much to the chagrin of thousands of Tibetan refugees in Dharamsala. [CSM]
I'm disappointed, but not at all surprised to hear this news. Like any newly popular teenager, India is kicking its penniless lover out of bed for a wealther swain. India has ended its support for a free Tibet, and is seriously cozying up to China. It's getting increased commerce, a new border agreement, China's acceptance of India's invasion and annexation of Sikkim, and China's tacit consent of how India treats its own domestic independence movements.
The kissy-face between India and China today is a substantial change from the four decades of frosty relations between the two countries. Why? It's all about the benjamins, 'natch:
India's bilateral trade with China touched $13.6bn last year with the balance of trade reportedly favouring Delhi. The two sides were surprised with the growth in bilateral trade as it was a mere $1bn a decade ago. Experts say with this rate of growth, China may soon overtake the US as India's largest trading partner. Indo-US trade stood at about $20bn in 2004. [BBC]
Bilateral investment is going up as well, and mainly in one direction:
Indian investments in China crossed $100m last year. On the other hand, China feels the Indian economy is not opening up to Chinese investments, which remain at a mere $20m. With the Indian side now favouring 100% foreign investment in the construction sector, Beijing hopes to increase its presence in India. [BBC]
With increased commerce comes ... cheesy lines from politicians:
On a visit yesterday to India's technology capital of Bangalore, Premier Wen urged Indian software companies to come to China and take advantage of his nation's manufacturing capabilities. "Cooperation is just like two pagodas, one hardware and one software," Wen said. "Combined, we [India and China] can take the leadership position in the world." [CSM][Somebody please get Premier Wen some game! We're dying here.]
Is this a good idea for India? Should it trust China even as it plans to build a jet fighter with Pakistan? How much does India in fact trust China? Well ...
Today's agreement lays out a road map for settling the border dispute between the two countries. China has finally acknowledged India's takeover of Sikkim and is sitting down to negotiate over Aksai Chin and Arunachal Pradesh. It is likely that the actual line of control will become the new international border. This isn't just about money, though. It's also about how India treats its own independence movements:
Delhi has its own separatist movements to consider in Kashmir, Sikkim, and Arunachal Pradesh. Supporting the Free Tibet movement against the wishes of China... would open up a Pandora's box within India itself. [CSM]
Still, not everything is quite hunky dory. The two nations are hugging each other strongly with one hand, while keeping a firm grip on their knives with another:
China has long maintained a close military and strategic partnership with Pakistan, India's nuclear rival. Just days before his visit to China, Wen signed a series of deals with Pakistan, including a plan to manufacture a jointly designed fighter aircraft called the JF-17. This announcement came just days after India announced its intention to buy F-16 and F-18 fighters from the US, including technology that allows India to produce F-16s itself.More worrisome to Chinese negotiators this week may be the Indian-US plan for India to send its Navy to patrol the Straits of Malacca between Indonesia and Malaysia, a crucial shipping lane. China has long considered Southeast Asia to be its own backyard.
It was in this context that China's ambassador to India, Sun Yuxi, warned against India becoming too closely aligned with the US. "We have nothing against India's growing ties with the US," he told the Calcutta Telegraph. "But Indo-US ties should not be directed against a third country." [CSM]
Really, it should come as no surprise to people that India and China behave just like hegemonic wannabes everywhere. Follow the money, look for power-politics, and don't believe the hype. Even when you're being fed a line as good as "We're like two pagodas baby, we go together like hardware and software. Come into the night and make beautiful money with me."



