Every Geologist has the same macabre dream.  They want to be as close to the fault as possible when the big one hits.  Any geologist that tells you different is lying so as not to upset your sensibilities.  The first three months of this year I spent nearly every weekend camping in the rugged mountains near the San Andreas Fault while constructing a geological map of the area.  On every drive out the professor would smile devilishly and then say “maybe the Big One will hit this weekend.”

Previously I blogged about the extreme dangers of the world’s most unforgiving battlefield, high in the Siachen Glacier near the Line of Control in Kashmir (Manish followed up with some stats).  As if the hail of artillery rounds, machine-gun fire, and extreme cold weren’t enough, over the weekend the soldiers manning their outposts had to deal with a massive Earthquake almost directly beneath them.  How did those soldiers fair during the Earthquake?  That is a secret held close by both sides for good reason.  What men with guns can’t dislodge, an Earthquake can manage with ease.

ISLAMABAD: The Army General Headquarters has asked the Ministry of Water and Power to restore power to several sensitive military installations, which collapsed in the earthquake, along the Line of Control (LoC) in Azad Jammu and Kashmir (AJK), a government official told Daily Times.

The Water and Power Development Authority (WAPDA) was providing electricity to AJK from the Muzaffarabad Grid Station through a single point electricity provision system, while AJK Electricity Board was responsible for power distribution in the area.

The official said that the Muzaffarabad Grid Station supplied electricity to all sensitive military installations and pickets, but the earthquake has completely destroyed the system. [Link]

and on the Indian side:

Twenty-six security personnel, including 21 Army jawans, were killed and scores of others injured as the massive earthquake damaged bunkers and barracks along the Line of Control (LoC) in Baramulla, Kupwara and Poonch districts of Jammu and Kashmir today.

The Army has lost 21 soldiers due to bunkers caving in and damage to barracks along LoC in Rampur, Uri, Baramulla and Tangdhar sectors, a defence spokesman told PTI. [Link]

Keep in mind that whatever military casualties you see reported in the media will be grossly underreported.  Now is not the time to tell your enemy how many of your men died along that merciless line.  The New York Times recognizes that this shared pain may provide an opening:

The 7.6-magnitude quake sent tremors across much of South Asia and punched through the disputed Himalayan region of Kashmir. On Monday, in a gesture of neighborly solidarity remarkable only because of the two countries involved, Pakistan said it would accept an Indian offer of relief.

India announced that it would send those items that Pakistan has said it needs: tents, blankets, plastic sheets, food and medicines. India had also offered helicopters to assist with rescue efforts - something that Pakistan has said it badly needs - but on this, Pakistan demurred. There was also no suggestion from Pakistan that it would accept joint military rescue operations.

The Pakistani Foreign Ministry spokeswoman, Tasneem Aslam, emphasized late Monday evening that neither Indian troops nor helicopters would be involved in the relief operation.

And what about this offer which seems almost ridiculous given the rivalry at the LOC:

The Indian foreign secretary, Shyam Saran, told reporters in New Delhi on Monday evening that India had also offered to send relief, perhaps by foot, across the Line of Control, or L.O.C., as it is known here, to villages difficult for Pakistani authorities to reach. Pakistan has not agreed to the proposal.

Here is something else to consider: the response of the respective militaries (Pakistan and India’s) to this environmental disaster, and what the resulting political fallout will be.  After Hurricane Katrina I swiftly predicted that the Executive Branch, with the backing of some in Congress, would seek to weaken the Posse Comitatus Act and grant the military greater power within the United States.  They could claim that the slow response was due to the military being restrained to act by the law on native soil.  I was dead on.  The military can do the job faster and better than the local government was the wisdom offered.  In Pakistan there can be no debate about whether local government or the military is to blame if the response is inadequate.  There is no local government.  Any poor response, any ineffective management, and the buck stops at General Musharraf’s desk.  Musharraf’s legitimacy stems from the fact that his army is more efficient and less corrupt than Pakistan’s previous elected governments.  He enjoys the support of “the people” for this very reason.  He gets the job done.  This Earthquake has the potential to destabilize his government if the military proves to be incapable.  On the other side of the border we see a slightly different situation.  The Indian Army has received rave reviews in Indian-administered Kashmir.  Granted they have a much smaller problem on their side of the border.  From the BBC:

All the locals acknowledge the help of the Indian army in evacuating casualties to hospital. They say more people might have died, had it not been for the army’s help.

While I was outside the hospital, I saw a military lorry bringing three injured people for treatment.

However, the Kasmiris are furious with the non-military government.  From the same article:

I arrived in this border area of Indian-administered Kashmir to find people in a poor condition after Saturday’s earthquake.

They were angry that they had not received any rations for the past three days - not from the authorities, nor from any non-governmental organisations.

Saleem Ahmed, who lost his son, says: “There were 20 bags of rice in a government-owned shop which collapsed. People took away the rice but could not cook it. We couldn’t even salvage a cup.”

He says his family had survived on rain water collected in a juice carton made of paper.

Deja Vu.  The sentiments are so similar to what we heard after Hurricane Katrina.  So to recap,  in Pakistan they are mad at the military (which is by default the government), and in India they are pretty pleased with the military but are angry at the Indian administrators (which is a bad sign if India wants to win the hearts and minds of these Kashmiris). 

 “Because we are Kashmiris, no one cares for us,” said Khawja Riaz, a 26-year-old, standing in front of a badly damaged mosque in Garkote, its tin roof supported only by a damaged brick column.

Nearly all houses in Garkote village, perched on a hillside 5 km from the Pakistan frontier, have been damaged or destroyed by the quake.

More than 24 hours after the deadly tremors, no aid or relief had reached the village, a story echoed in many other settlements across the badly-hit Uri administrative region. [Link]

Nature cares not for the delicate balance of things along a line it does not recognize.