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November 07, 2006

Live Blogging the 2006 midterm election resultsPolitics

11:50 p.m. PST: Last Update of the Night (to see updates in the proper sequential order see down below):

The DEMS WIN THE HOUSE. Control of the Senate has come down to a recount in Virginia (provided Montana doesn’t shift too much). MACACAS MADE A LOT OF DIFFERENCE IN THIS ELECTION!

———————————————————

Hey SM folks, I am going to keep this post up and will be updating it through tomorrow. Feel free to leave comments regarding the results of ANY races and/or ballot measures you are interested in. I will mainly be reporting here on some of the races featuring (or of particular concern to) South Asian American candidates but most of us are interested in a whole lot more. I won’t be in front of a computer for the next several hours but when I get back in front of one later tonight I will go into Abhi Russert mode.

Let’s hope things turn out well!

Update 1: 5:17p.m. PST:

The latest #s [via Drudge]

VA SEN [35.28% IN]
ALLEN 392,816 49.39%
WEBB 392,854 49.39%

Update 2: 10:05 p.m. PST

I’m back! Here we go:

Raj Bhakta (R) loses:

Allyson Schwartz (DEM)* 143,031 66%
Raj Peter Bhakta (REP) 73,429 34%
99% of precincts reporting… [Link]

Raj Peter Bhakta, a former hopeful on Donald Trump’s television show “The Apprentice,” lost his long-shot bid Tuesday for a job as a GOP congressman.

Bhakta had sought to oust first-term Democratic Rep. Allyson Schwartz, two years after he occupied the posh Manhattan boardrooms of Trump’s show in which eager young men and women competed for a job with the real-estate mogul. He was fired from the program after a home renovation project went awry. [Link]

Update 3: 10:18 p.m. PST

It’s Bobby Piyush Jindal (R) in a landslide victory:

Bobby Jindal (REP)* 130,277 88%
David Gereighty (DEM) 10,888 7%
Stacy Tallitsch (DEM) 5,004 3%
Peter Beary (LIB) 1,670 1%
100% of precincts reporting… [Link]

Kumar Barve (D) is looking good:

Md. State House District 17
Candidate Votes %
Jim Gilchrist (D) 18,089 26
Luiz Simmons * (D) 17,052 24
Kumar Barve * (D) 16,889 24
Mary Haley (R) 6,530 9
Other 11,405 16
Key: * Incumbent | Red Checkmark Winner
Precincts: 77% | Updated: 1:12 AM ET | Source: AP… [Link]

Update 4: 10:23 p.m. PST

Raj Goyle (D) won in Kansas!!

State House - District 87 - 11 of 11 Precincts Reporting
Name Party Votes Pct
Goyle, Raj Dem 3,216 56.36
Huy, Bonnie (i) GOP 2,490 43.64… [Link]

Update 5: 10:36 p.m. PST

Dilip Paliath not looking so good from what I can tell.

Neeraj Nigam (a.k.a. “other”) loses…big time:

Va. U.S. House District 10
Candidate Votes %
Frank Wolf * (R) 129,508 58
Judy Feder (D) 91,739 41
Other 3,764 2
Key: * Incumbent | Red Checkmark Winner
Precincts: 98% | Updated: 1:37 AM ET | Source: AP… [Link]

Update 6: 10:51 p.m. PST

Swati Dandekar looks like she is headed for victory in Iowa:

District 36
14 of 15 precincts - 93 percent
Swati Dandekar, Dem (i) 5,398 - 54 percent
Nick Wagner, GOP 4,564 - 46 percent… [Link]

Update 7: 10:59 p.m. PST

AJ Sekhon is getting smoked:

U.S. House - District 2 | COUNTY RESULTS
Candidate Votes % of votes
Wally Herger (REP)* 78,466 66%
A. J. Sekhon (DEM) 37,425 31%
55% of precincts reporting

Update 8: 11:24 p.m. PST

First Muslim elected to Congress:

Voters elected a black Democrat as the first Muslim in Congress on Tuesday after a race in which he advocated quick U.S. withdrawal from Iraq and made little mention of his faith.

Keith Ellison, a 43-year-old lawyer and state representative, defeated two rivals, television networks said, to succeed retiring Democrat Martin Sabo in a seat that has been held by Democrats since 1963.

Ellison, who converted to Islam as a 19-year-old college student in his native Detroit, won with the help of Muslims among a coalition of liberal, anti-war voters. [Link]

Update 9: 11:29p.m. PST

Chad Khan loses in Houston:

State House Dist. 126 In: 100%
Chad Khan, D
9,072 32.6%
Oscar Palma, L
735 2.6%
Patricia Harless, R
18,003 64.7%… [Link]

Satveer Chaudhary scores a big victory in Minn:

District 50
27 of 27 precincts (100%) Percent of vote
Satveer S. Chaudhary, D* 19,139 63
Rae Hart Anderson, R 11,105 37… [Link]

Update 10: 11:37 PST

The NATIONAL RACE HAS COME DOWN TO MONTANA AND VIRGINIA:

There will be a recount that will take weeks in Virginia. They are counting really slowly in Montana. The Democrats need to win BOTH to take control of the Senate. The Democrats have a razor’s edge lead in both races as of this post (11:37p.m. PST). The Democrats easily captured the House. Nancy Pelosi is third in line to be President should our government be decapitated.

abhi on November 7, 2006 08:11 PM in Politics · T·r·a·c·k·b·a·c·k address · Direct link · Email post



398 comments

 1 · siddhartha on November 7, 2006 08:26 PM · Direct link · “Quote”(?)

holy macaca! this one is headed for late night... and probably legal challenges!


 2 · kit kat on November 7, 2006 08:29 PM · Direct link · “Quote”(?)
VA SEN [35.28% IN] ALLEN 392,816 49.39% WEBB 392,854 49.39%
It's going to be a long night. Polls still open here in CA.

 3 · Saheli on November 7, 2006 08:33 PM · Direct link · “Quote”(?)

I demand Abhi Russert Vlogging. Only that will settle my roiling stomach. Get ready to pass the hat for the legal fund. . .


 4 · razib_the_mullah on November 7, 2006 08:44 PM · Direct link · “Quote”(?)

at 52%
Candidates Party Vote Totals Percentage
G F Allen Republican 583,153 50.85%
J H Webb Jr Democratic 549,673 47.93%
G G Parker Independent Green 12,825 1.12%
Write Ins 1,141 0.10%


 5 · Janeofalltrades on November 7, 2006 08:51 PM · Direct link · “Quote”(?)

I can't believe it's nearly 9:00 pm and they haven't been able to call a single important race so far, everything seems like such a dead heat.


 6 · RC on November 7, 2006 08:58 PM · Direct link · “Quote”(?)

I think I am going to be more upset at the loss of Webb than I was at the loss of Dean. I cant watch anymore the trend is not looking good.


 7 · ohnoes on November 7, 2006 09:01 PM · Direct link · “Quote”(?)

Seems like Macaca Allen will make it.

Allen
(Incumbent)
674,399 50% 60% of precincts reporting
Webb
663,268 49%


 8 · prasad on November 7, 2006 09:09 PM · Direct link · “Quote”(?)

Looks like Mr. Macaca Maker is gonna make it. This is gonna be heartbreaking to many. I am not too surprised though.


 9 · tamasha on November 7, 2006 09:10 PM · Direct link · “Quote”(?)

It looks like Kent Conrad's going to be sticking around in Bunker-ville.


 10 · ohnoes on November 7, 2006 09:11 PM · Direct link · “Quote”(?)

On radio Webb campaign was still happy, as results from N. VA are not out yet. They expect N. VA to go Webb's way.


 11 · siddhartha on November 7, 2006 09:11 PM · Direct link · “Quote”(?)

Too early to call Virginia. There are such huge differences between region of the state that everything depends on which precincts have come in and which not. In fact it's arguable that small rural precincts come in earlier, and larger urban ones later, which would actually look good for Webb. Not saying it's necessarily that way, but it's grounds for caution.


 12 · Salil Maniktahla on November 7, 2006 09:12 PM · Direct link · “Quote”(?)

I can't bear to watch. I feel like any time I care intensely about the outcome of an election, it always turns out exactly the opposite from what I wanted.

On a slightly related note, has anyone seen "Hacking Democracy?"

Watch it, if you get a chance. It's on HBO frequently. Good stuff.


 13 · pennwatch on November 7, 2006 09:12 PM · Direct link · “Quote”(?)

rick santorum is on his way out though...


 14 · Sahej on November 7, 2006 09:12 PM · Direct link · “Quote”(?)

Go Northern Virgina!


 15 · siddhartha on November 7, 2006 09:13 PM · Direct link · “Quote”(?)
rick santorum is on his way out though...

yes he is!!!


 16 · circus in jungle on November 7, 2006 09:14 PM · Direct link · “Quote”(?)

good data on who is voting for and against mr.macaca


 17 · razib_the_atheist on November 7, 2006 09:14 PM · Direct link · “Quote”(?)

d00d, he said santorum....


 18 · Prasad on November 7, 2006 09:16 PM · Direct link · “Quote”(?)

Santaram? :) Who?


 19 · Janeofalltrades on November 7, 2006 09:17 PM · Direct link · “Quote”(?)

I don't think I can go to sleep tonite until I know at least the local elections and some other important ones. I think it will be interesting to see if the Senate shifts. I found this helpful. Anyone else have any other site that's better?


 20 · pennwatch on November 7, 2006 09:20 PM · Direct link · “Quote”(?)

lieberman and menendez win....thanks heavens NJ stays blue
can't stand leiberman & was hoping for lamont, but a socialist sanders from vermont and conservative lieberman from conn. probably balance the dem caucus.


 21 · No von Mises on November 7, 2006 09:22 PM · Direct link · “Quote”(?)

There are socialist politicians here? That's unpossible.


 22 · Manju on November 7, 2006 09:22 PM · Direct link · “Quote”(?)

 23 · kit kat on November 7, 2006 09:25 PM · Direct link · “Quote”(?)

Crossing my fingers for Webb. I've been following CNN also.


 24 · Macaca on November 7, 2006 09:27 PM · Direct link · “Quote”(?)

Webb 785,445 50%
Allen(Incumbent) 785,435 49%


 25 · pennwatch on November 7, 2006 09:28 PM · Direct link · “Quote”(?)

JOAT -WNYC has special coverage on FM 93.9 or at http://www.wnyc.org/


 26 · razib_the_atheist on November 7, 2006 09:28 PM · Direct link · “Quote”(?)

http://sbe.virginiainteractive.org/index.htm


 27 · circus in jungle on November 7, 2006 09:29 PM · Direct link · “Quote”(?)

va is back to even...


 28 · Janeofalltrades on November 7, 2006 09:32 PM · Direct link · “Quote”(?)
JOAT -WNYC has special coverage on FM 93.9 or at http://www.wnyc.org/

Yeah I'm having a hard time listening so I'm watching TV and watching it on the web. When TV goes to commercial I turn up WNYC :-) I love this map though. Thanx.


 29 · sakshi on November 7, 2006 09:33 PM · Direct link · “Quote”(?)
republicans take guam! whoo hoo!

:-D


 30 · pied piper on November 7, 2006 09:34 PM · Direct link · “Quote”(?)

JOAT -

As those who waltz along the Primrose Path already know, I recommend Pollster.com. My favorite statistic of the night from their site:

Those who decided in the last three days (who were 10% of all voters) went for McCaskill 57% to 38%. Earlier decideds split nearly evenly with 50% for McCaskill, 49% for Talent.

 31 · siddhartha on November 7, 2006 09:34 PM · Direct link · “Quote”(?)

thanks for that site, razib. any virginia connoisseurs who can deconstruct the results by county?


 32 · pied piper on November 7, 2006 09:38 PM · Direct link · “Quote”(?)
It looks like Kent Conrad's going to be sticking around in Bunker-ville.

Pulling out a real nail-biter -- so close that nobody even bothered to poll it. Though I'm sure that Abhi's GOTV operation in the field was crucial.


 33 · razib_the_atheist on November 7, 2006 09:38 PM · Direct link · “Quote”(?)

fairfax reported over 90%. i'm bettin' against webb.


 34 · namita on November 7, 2006 09:39 PM · Direct link · “Quote”(?)

macaca's still in...

by the way, i voted in south carolina. as i was leaving, one of the poll workers stopped me and said, "you have the prettiest accent." i shot her the look of death, and she went on, "it's just the prettiest indian accent ever! do you watch ER? you look just like that girl on ER."

i told her that i grew up in south carolina, in fact, in the very neighborhood she was working the polls for. and my accent is definitely generic american/queen's english/indian depending on whom i am speaking with.

after i left, i reported her to the election commission.


 35 · Janeofalltrades on November 7, 2006 09:46 PM · Direct link · “Quote”(?)
one of the poll workers stopped me and said, "you have the prettiest accent." i shot her the look of death, and she went on, "it's just the prettiest indian accent ever! do you watch ER? you look just like that girl on ER."

after i left, i reported her to the election commission.

Awwww why? Was it really that offensive? Im sorry Im not being scarcastic. I'm running for the Board of Directors in my complex and 99% of the people who did show up for elections yesterday were Sr Citizens that were very warm and kind towards me but definitely along the lines of "Oh you are so pretty and Indian and bla bla bla". They've all been very kind without malice, just perhaps ignorant and I don't necessarily hold it against them. Too bad we didn't have Quorum yesterday to declare me the winner which I'm projecting I will be.


 36 · Prasad on November 7, 2006 09:51 PM · Direct link · “Quote”(?)

She might have felt offended because of the 'accent' remark. If someone says you look lovely, thats something else.


 37 · pied piper on November 7, 2006 09:52 PM · Direct link · “Quote”(?)

Fairfax itself may not be enough of an indicator. Here's the county-by-county map from the Bush-Kerry race. Loudon and Prince William together have about half the population of Fairfax, and along with Norfolk and Petersburg there are a lot of strongly Democratic precincts that haven't reported yet.

MSNBC is reporting that both sides are predicting that we are in recount-lan


 38 · pied piper on November 7, 2006 09:53 PM · Direct link · “Quote”(?)

I meant, "recount-land" in #37. Sorry about that.


 39 · Ismat on November 7, 2006 09:53 PM · Direct link · “Quote”(?)

Oy, it's going to be a late night for me. Going on 10 pm and I'm still at work...but that's OK. I love elections! The drama! The reporting! So glad the mutineers are here, as well. I demand A. Russert now! We've been flipping through the stations here at work and I've yet to see him...


 40 · dipanjan on November 7, 2006 09:53 PM · Direct link · “Quote”(?)

one-third of richmond still unreported. 2/3rd gave dems a net of 16K. One third should give 8K more :). Still not giving up. Green got 21K :(


 41 · sakshi on November 7, 2006 09:56 PM · Direct link · “Quote”(?)
by the way, i voted in south carolina. as i was leaving, one of the poll workers stopped me and said, "you have the prettiest accent." i shot her the look of death, and she went on, "it's just the prettiest indian accent ever! do you watch ER? you look just like that girl on ER."

i told her that i grew up in south carolina, in fact, in the very neighborhood she was working the polls for. and my accent is definitely generic american/queen's english/indian depending on whom i am speaking with.

Its really hard to say the right thing all the time(or to even know what will/will not offend someone). I don't think she meant any malice, which is what counts.


 42 · siddhartha on November 7, 2006 09:58 PM · Direct link · “Quote”(?)

i'm ready to project legal challenges in virginia no matter how it's called tonight.


 43 · Prasad on November 7, 2006 09:58 PM · Direct link · “Quote”(?)

Allen might pull through as this is where they stand with 82% reporting.

Allen: 929,128
Webb: 901,272


 44 · Amardeep on November 7, 2006 10:00 PM · Direct link · “Quote”(?)

It's damn close. That site Razib linked to is showing 966,000 for Allen and 964,000 for Webb at this point.

Long night, indeed! I think I'm going to make some popcorn.


 45 · siddhartha on November 7, 2006 10:02 PM · Direct link · “Quote”(?)

now 973K allen, 970K webb. yikes!


 46 · Macaca on November 7, 2006 10:02 PM · Direct link · “Quote”(?)

G F Allen Republican 973,322 49.48%
J H Webb Jr Democratic 969,980 49.31%

87.27% reported.


 47 · dipanjan on November 7, 2006 10:05 PM · Direct link · “Quote”(?)

what's the automatic recount trigger? 0.5?


 48 · No Desh on November 7, 2006 10:05 PM · Direct link · “Quote”(?)
Long night, indeed! I think I'm going to make some popcorn.

and several bottles of wine...


 49 · Metric System on November 7, 2006 10:06 PM · Direct link · “Quote”(?)

Looks like Webb will go down in defeat. Sad day for Desis.


 50 · desi_new yorker on November 7, 2006 10:06 PM · Direct link · “Quote”(?)

What were those 21000 people in Va who voted for the Green Party candidate thinking? OMG. Why do they keep shooting themselves in the foot? This is soooo frustrating to come this close and lose. Again :(


 51 · Metric System on November 7, 2006 10:08 PM · Direct link · “Quote”(?)

Friggin Green Party. I thought we won the cold war, why are these communists still around?


 52 · siddhartha on November 7, 2006 10:12 PM · Direct link · “Quote”(?)

1) the "green" candidate in virginia is actually "independent green" which is not the same as green party. she's more right-wing.

2) CNN has allyson schwartz 69%, raj peter bhakta 31% in pennsylvania. cue the "you're fired" jokes.


 53 · pied piper on November 7, 2006 10:12 PM · Direct link · “Quote”(?)

If the VA election results are closer than 1 percent, the losing candidate can get a recount. Both sides are predicting that regardless of who is ahead at the end of the night beginning of the morning, there will be a recount. And with the voting machine problems, Rovian dirty tricks, and other problems -- all bets are off.

Don't concede defeat for Webb too soon. And get ready for overtime.


 54 · circus in jungle on November 7, 2006 10:12 PM · Direct link · “Quote”(?)

the race now boils down to fairfax and arlignton counties (dem) against rest of the counties (rep) in va

Seems to be more votes in the dem counties but it depends on how heavily they go for webb.


 55 · kit kat on November 7, 2006 10:13 PM · Direct link · “Quote”(?)
What were those 21000 people in Va who voted for the Green Party candidate thinking?

Yeah. Seriously.


 56 · razib_the_atheist on November 7, 2006 10:14 PM · Direct link · “Quote”(?)

1) the "green" candidate in virginia is actually "independent green" which is not the same as green party. she's more right-wing.

all the better to take votes from the demz :)

yglesias is pissed too.


 57 · pied piper, esq. on November 7, 2006 10:15 PM · Direct link · “Quote”(?)

circus in jungle, it's a bit more complicated than that. go back and read my earlier posts on this and especially look at the maps. norfolk, petersburg, and even loudon and prince william are strongholds for webb in a race this close, and they all seem to still be in play to some extent.

and don't forget the inevitable recount and litigation.


 58 · Ponniyin Selvan on November 7, 2006 10:21 PM · Direct link · “Quote”(?)

Republicans should take it up with Osama Bin laden for not helping this time.. If he had released a video a couple of days before things would be different.. :-)


 59 · loudoun desi on November 7, 2006 10:22 PM · Direct link · “Quote”(?)

Pied Piper is right-- Loudoun & Prince William aren't Republican strongholds anymore. Everyone I know in Loudoun is voting for Webb (this may be because I am a unionized public school teacher). I'm not giving up hope yet.


 60 · Sahej on November 7, 2006 10:23 PM · Direct link · “Quote”(?)

keep hope alive!


 61 · espressa on November 7, 2006 10:24 PM · Direct link · “Quote”(?)

In non-brown news: I'm happy to see Hevesi keep his job as NY State Comptroller. His apology ad totally tugged my heart strings.


 62 · desi_newyorker on November 7, 2006 10:25 PM · Direct link · “Quote”(?)
the "green" candidate in virginia is actually "independent green" which is not the same as green party. she's more right-wing.

Oops. Sorry Greens:)

Don't concede defeat for Webb too soon. And get ready for overtime.

in which case, I have full faith and confidence in our fox news like "fair and balanced" Supreme Court to favor democracy over partisanship like they did in Bush v. Gore!


 63 · pied piper on November 7, 2006 10:27 PM · Direct link · “Quote”(?)
I'm happy to see Hevesi keep his job as NY State Comptroller.

Good news. Now when they inevitably (and maybe appropriately) dump him, we'll get a successor appointed by Spitzer, rather than bow-tie guy (not Raj Bhakta, the other one).


 64 · espressa on November 7, 2006 10:30 PM · Direct link · “Quote”(?)

Hey now. Hevesi made a stupid mistake. And he's sorry. He's done a decent job otherwise, right?

But I'd support anything Spitzer does. Totally blinded by love.


 65 · Manju on November 7, 2006 10:30 PM · Direct link · “Quote”(?)

 66 · Salil Maniktahla on November 7, 2006 10:31 PM · Direct link · “Quote”(?)

Oh please. please please please please pleeeeeeease. Go Arlington! Fairfax is a bit more red, but Arlington is huge and largely Dem.

Pleeeeeeeeease...


 67 · pied piper on November 7, 2006 10:40 PM · Direct link · “Quote”(?)
the "green" candidate in virginia is actually "independent green" which is not the same as green party. she's more right-wing.

fascinating. is that like the larouche version of the green party?


 68 · namita on November 7, 2006 10:41 PM · Direct link · “Quote”(?)

i think it was the tone it was delivered in that peeved me off. i'm used to the southern lady way of speaking, but i just thought it was inappropriate to do that at the polls, where everyone is supposed to be equal and we can all sit back and rejoice in our mutual identity as americans.


 69 · Paul on November 7, 2006 10:43 PM · Direct link · “Quote”(?)

i've been reloading the virginia results site like a crack fiend:

http://sbe.vipnet.org/nov2006/l_02.htm


 70 · desi_newyorker on November 7, 2006 10:45 PM · Direct link · “Quote”(?)
Oh please. please please please please pleeeeeeease. Go Arlington! Fairfax is a bit more red, but Arlington is huge and largely Dem.

Pleeeeeeeeease...

We may still have hope. Margin is down to 11,000 votes with 94% reporting.....


 71 · espressa on November 7, 2006 10:47 PM · Direct link · “Quote”(?)

I can't STAND Lieberman. What a shady, impish, loser.


 72 · No von Mises on November 7, 2006 10:48 PM · Direct link · “Quote”(?)

Sheldon Whitehouse-D elected in Rhode Island

Chafee is out. 35% of voters said Chafee agreed too much with Bush. Hilarious.


 73 · Salil Maniktahla on November 7, 2006 10:55 PM · Direct link · “Quote”(?)

Looks like Webb stomped in Arlington, and is comfortably ahead in Fairfax. 139 precincts to go. Paul, I know how you feel. We'll start a 12-step program after the dust settles. Right now, someone pass the goddamn pipe.


 74 · Amardeep on November 7, 2006 10:58 PM · Direct link · “Quote”(?)

The gap is down to 8000 with 95.5% reporting.

Nail biter!!!


 75 · Janeofalltrades on November 7, 2006 10:59 PM · Direct link · “Quote”(?)
I'm happy to see Hevesi keep his job as NY State Comptroller. His apology ad totally tugged my heart strings.

I know the Hevesi family personally and am good friends with his son Andy and know that his mom has been really ill so every time I saw that ad it made me feel bad. He's a really good man and has served this area of Forest Hills for a long time before he went on to be Comptroller and his record is solid but this was a stupid and very bad mistake. Unfortunately as Pied Piper said he will be removed by Spitzer who will appoint someone else which is a shame. And like you I absolutely adore Spitzer and believe in him. He's got a solid record.


 76 · Salil Maniktahla on November 7, 2006 11:05 PM · Direct link · “Quote”(?)

Dude. What's the hangup with Prince William County? Only 25 out of 67 precincts reporting in?!


 77 · pied piper on November 7, 2006 11:08 PM · Direct link · “Quote”(?)
Margin is down to 11,000 votes with 94% reporting.....

And still a lot of Loudon, Prince William, and Petersburg to be counted.

My favorite numbers of the evening remain the Missouri exit polls numbers. If they're correct, and the rest of the numbers hold, the break in last minute undecided voters for McCaskill is a huge deal.

Damn! The Democrats took Nicaragua.

Damn! The Republicans lost Iran. (And FWIW, whatever else you might say about Daniel Ortega, I'm pretty sure he didn't get elected by running racist ads, conducting robo-dialed push polls, and engaging in voter intimidation. Great people, those friends of yours.)

As for Hevesi, JOAT and espressa, what I have heard so far doesn't sound great, though I do reserve judgment to some extent on the merits -- the situation with his wife is quite poignant. Still, it does seem that most people have drawn their conclusions, for better or worse, and that being the case, better for Spitzer to pick someone than for us to be stuck with bow tie guy, who just irritates.


 78 · desi_new yorker on November 7, 2006 11:10 PM · Direct link · “Quote”(?)

Surprisingly, it looks like the Republicans are going to win the Missouri Senate race. Seems like it doesn't matter for immediate purposes if Webb can pull this one out or not :(


 79 · circus in jungle on November 7, 2006 11:12 PM · Direct link · “Quote”(?)

Does all precincts have almost same number of votes? What is the criteria decide the precinct boundaries


 80 · siddhartha on November 7, 2006 11:13 PM · Direct link · “Quote”(?)

Democratic "magic number" for the House is down to 2.


 81 · desi_new yorker on November 7, 2006 11:14 PM · Direct link · “Quote”(?)
(And FWIW, whatever else you might say about Daniel Ortega, I'm pretty sure he didn't get elected by running racist ads, conducting robo-dialed push polls, and engaging in voter intimidation. Great people, those friends of yours.)

Well said :) He was also elected by the PEOPLE of his country and not it's Supreme Court!


 82 · Jay IALI on November 7, 2006 11:15 PM · Direct link · “Quote”(?)

All:

Ohio Secretary of State's website reports Jay Goyal easily ahead of his opponent which will make him the youngest and fifth elected Indian-American state house member.

Jay


 83 · pied piper on November 7, 2006 11:16 PM · Direct link · “Quote”(?)

"Dear John, it's over" in the House of Representatives. Bring on the return of oversight, accountability, and separation of powers.


 84 · siddhartha on November 7, 2006 11:17 PM · Direct link · “Quote”(?)

CNN now projects Democrats take the House.


 85 · Salil Maniktahla on November 7, 2006 11:17 PM · Direct link · “Quote”(?)

Circus:

I'm not totally clear on how precinct boundaries are drawn, but supposedly precincts are somewhat equal. They're not supposed to be larger than 2000 voters, but there's some margin of error in all of them. Can anyone elucidate?


 86 · tash on November 7, 2006 11:21 PM · Direct link · “Quote”(?)
Bring on the return of oversight, accountability, and separation of powers.

Constitutional Law geeks around the world rejoice :)



 87 · pied piper, esq, the elections nerd on November 7, 2006 11:23 PM · Direct link · “Quote”(?)

Missouri Senate is still way too close to call -- those returns breakdown with the Republicans strong in rural counties, Democrats dominant in the big cities. Only half the returns are in, almost certainly not in Kansas City and St. Louis. That one is going to be a nail-biter as well.

As I understand it, precinct sizes can vary widely -- "precinct" just refers to the actual polling location, so (for example) if there are a lot of voting machines set up in one precinct, it could have many more votes than another. (And though this is probably more obvious, note that when returns are reported in terms of "counties," counties definitely do vary widely in population.)


 88 · Janeofalltrades on November 7, 2006 11:27 PM · Direct link · “Quote”(?)
I'm not totally clear on how precinct boundaries are drawn, but supposedly precincts are somewhat equal. They're not supposed to be larger than 2000 voters, but there's some margin of error in all of them. Can anyone elucidate?

Precincts are generally geographic and while there may be an effort to make them "even" in terms of the pop it can be farthest from the truth. Also within a precinct (for NYC) you have districts. My current Precinct has 12 districts within it with individual booths, some of them have multiple booths and they all pertain to geographic locations of the actual buildings or housing blocks. There is a map science to it though not necessary a math science.


 89 · siddhartha on November 7, 2006 11:29 PM · Direct link · “Quote”(?)

50-50 senate is very possible. if dems take montana and missouri, and reps keep tennessee and virginia, DICK CHENEY becomes the tie-breaker for the next two years.


 90 · pied piper, esq. on November 7, 2006 11:31 PM · Direct link · “Quote”(?)

Here's some information about precinct size in North Carolina:

In North Carolina, the number of registered voters assigned to a particular voting place varies greatly from precinct to precinct. In terms of registered voters, precinct sizes range from a low of 21 voters to as many as 6,827. This variation in size is most often attributed to six factors - Population growth and density, - Availability of adequate sites to handle voters on election day, - Availability of voting equipment - Type of voting machine utilized by a county - Guidance as to the proper size of precincts - Reluctance on the part of elections officials and voters to change the location of an established voting place.

So here's a question: what's the status of absentee and provisional ballots in Virginia? Do absentees get counted first or last?


 91 · sakshi on November 7, 2006 11:34 PM · Direct link · “Quote”(?)
if dems take montana and missouri, and reps keep tennessee and virginia, DICK CHENEY becomes the tie-breaker for the next two years.
mera qatil hi mera munsif hai, kya mere haq me faisla dega.

(He who slew me is my judge,
O, what justice can i expect.)


 92 · Salil Maniktahla on November 7, 2006 11:36 PM · Direct link · “Quote”(?)

Piedpiper and Circus:

yeah, the numbers to watch are the raw voter counts.

I just realized, I've literally bitten my nails down to the quick. Ow.

Extrapolating loosely from the VA numbers, Prince William could hand over an additional thousand votes for Webb, another thousand from Fairfax County, and a few hundred from Newport News, etc. Most of the areas we're waiting on in VA lean left and are showing Webb in the lead.


 93 · election betting on November 7, 2006 11:39 PM · Direct link · “Quote”(?)

just curious, is there a place where you can bet on elections? anyone know?


 94 · circus in jungle on November 7, 2006 11:39 PM · Direct link · “Quote”(?)

May be dems shouldn't make too much of wins in RI, PA which lean blue anyways. Tonight is not proving to be a wave against iraqi war except that slightly more people are pissed off with bush but not in significant numbers. Unless dems pick up some southern states it can be easily argued that majority of the population didn't change their views on foreign policy, immigration. At least not significant enough to vote blue.

To force Bush to change the policy, tonight has to be a thumping win for blues which it doesn't seem to be. It is disappointing that even in this sorry state of affairs the reds are holding their own. What could be the reason for this?


 95 · brown_fob on November 7, 2006 11:40 PM · Direct link · “Quote”(?)
mera qatil hi mera munsif hai, kya mere haq me faisla dega.

wow sakshi. I thought exactly the same song/sher :)


 96 · Salil Maniktahla on November 7, 2006 11:42 PM · Direct link · “Quote”(?)
50-50 senate is very possible. if dems take montana and missouri, and reps keep tennessee and virginia, DICK CHENEY becomes the tie-breaker for the next two years.

Aaaargh!

Dammit, I will not begin pounding my head against something hard and unyielding until this happens. :-P

Sherrod Brown is on C-Span right now, and he's preaching stem-cell research, making OH the "silicon valley of alternative energy," affordable health care for all Americans, making education affordable, and ending the war in Iraq. Ok, fine, it's just a victory speech, but it feels good to hear it. I'm still waiting for a Dem to take the podium somewhere and deliver a screed on how the Dems now have a hold on fiscal conservatism, too. THAT would make me high-five random strangers on the street.

No matter what happens in the Senate, I'm going to have to go to sleep with a smile on my face.


 97 · Tiggs on November 7, 2006 11:45 PM · Direct link · “Quote”(?)

The reason for Reps holding is the economy. Employment is at an all high, and price of gas is below the 'hurt' threshold.


 98 · vaishnavi on November 7, 2006 11:47 PM · Direct link · “Quote”(?)
It is disappointing that even in this sorry state of affairs the reds are holding their own. What could be the reason for this?

my opinion? (and it's just my unscholarly thoughts, ;-)) the republicans have a platform that they're promoting-- judeo-christian philosophies (not necessarily religious practices) and values, their stance on defending america against terrorism, the war on iraq, etc. the democrats just seem to react to this-- questioning our place in iraq, not pushing for referendums banning gay marriage/abortion, etc. as a person that identifies as a democrat (and voted blue today), they just don't seem to stand for anything as a party to me except be a reaction to the republican's action (however misguided i feel that their action is). anyways, that's just my opinion :)


 99 · Sahej on November 7, 2006 11:48 PM · Direct link · “Quote”(?)

so the reason Tennessee and Virginia may go to the republican column is because of the economy? yes maccaca


 100 · desi_new yorker on November 7, 2006 11:49 PM · Direct link · “Quote”(?)
It is disappointing that even in this sorry state of affairs the reds are holding their own. What could be the reason for this?

The answer: gerrymandering by the Tom Delay led Republican Congress! They basically redrew districts to split African American voters and other traditionally Dem strongholds. Thus, they insulated themselves by building levees against a political wave. If only they had shown similar foresight in New Orleans...


 101 · Salil Maniktahla on November 7, 2006 11:49 PM · Direct link · “Quote”(?)

Circus:

To force Bush to change the policy, tonight has to be a thumping win for blues which it doesn't seem to be. It is disappointing that even in this sorry state of affairs the reds are holding their own. What could be the reason for this?

Actually, even a solid win for the Dems would not necessarily do much to force Bush to change policy. Or, it wouldn't do any more to force Bush to change policy. Bush can veto any bills that Dems pass to curtail war spending, from a "blunt force" standpoint. I agree, it's disappointing that the right still holds so much sway. I attribute that to Republicans' ability to organize, their very consistent messaging, their lightning attacks on any opposition candidates who show a sign of weakness, and on some generally smart strategy.

I don't attribute it to some kind of referendum whereby the majority of Americans are held sway by America's clever conservative foreign, economic, or social policies. That's a laugh.


 102 · pied piper on November 7, 2006 11:49 PM · Direct link · “Quote”(?)

circus - a couple of things to keep in mind. first, only one-third of the senate seats are up in any given election year, so the picture is necessarily partial. i think the republians will have more vulnerable senate seats in 2008 than they do this year.

second, the turnover in the house is remarkable -- it's not "slightly" at all. especially given how gerrymandered house districts are. at least as of a couple of weeks ago, 351 out of 435 congressional seats were either uncontested altogether or not highly contested. Of the 60 contested seats that had been polled as of then, 30 leaned strongly towards one party's candidate or the other. That leaves 30 seats, plus or minus, in which there really have been serious races.

(of course, one can't beat the daily show for midterm elections 101. even in a bad year, power of incumbency is pretty strong.)

third, bush is the most stubborn person on the planet. none of this is about getting him to change his policy, it's about limiting the damage he can do and ensuring some accountability and oversight.


 103 · hairy_d on November 7, 2006 11:50 PM · Direct link · “Quote”(?)
It is disappointing that even in this sorry state of affairs the reds are holding their own.
No matter what happens in the Senate
as a friendly neighbor looking in, i am surprised the decisions on the house seem to be passing under the radar. comment?

 104 · circus in jungle on November 7, 2006 11:51 PM · Direct link · “Quote”(?)
they just don't seem to stand for anything as a party to me except be a reaction to the republican's action (however misguided i feel that their action is). anyways, that's just my opinion :)

I suspect that reason for this is that the dems suspect that the majority of the population won't like what dems stand for. My point is that majority of Americans seem to vote red. Does that mean American's have become more conservative over the last decade or two? That could only be worse for us desis (or south asians if you prefer).


 105 · Sahej on November 7, 2006 11:53 PM · Direct link · “Quote”(?)
as a friendly neighbor looking in, i am surprised the decisions on the house seem to be passing under the radar. comment?

The legislative power of the House is limited, in that they can commission reports and hold hearings, but they can't pass bills that the Senate won't sign?


 106 · vaishnavi on November 7, 2006 11:54 PM · Direct link · “Quote”(?)

i guess i should add, the republicans promote their platform very well too. the people i know that have voted republican over the past six years have done so because of the importance of their religious beliefs, their support of the war in iraq and their fear of terrorism. it's a small sample and voting is a very personal choice, but the republican's foreign and social policies are why any of my friends vote republican.


 107 · ohnoes on November 7, 2006 11:57 PM · Direct link · “Quote”(?)

STATUS CANDIDATE VOTE VOTE %
KEY RACE

Allen
(Incumbent)
1,133,550 50%

Webb
1,127,537 49%

98% in.

http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2006//pages/results/states/VA/S/01/index.html


 108 · Salil Maniktahla on November 7, 2006 11:57 PM · Direct link · “Quote”(?)
I suspect that reason for this is that the dems suspect that the majority of the population won't like what dems stand for.

I think it's more like there is no one solid point of agreement for Dems on things like gay rights, stem cell research, etc. Conversely, it's far easier for Republicans to come together against those kinds of things.

My point is that majority of Americans seem to vote red. Does that mean American's have become more conservative over the last decade or two? That could only be worse for us desis (or south asians if you prefer).

Oh, you picked up on that, huh? What gave it away? :-D

Of course America has swung right in the last several years. And now the pendulum is swinging back. Hopefully (as I've said in these parts before), it'll swing so far left that I'll get a chance to experience the 60's again. Though I'll probably be like 40 years old when it happens.


 109 · siddhartha on November 7, 2006 11:57 PM · Direct link · “Quote”(?)

Per Virginia state site, Allen lead now down to just over 3,000 votes...


 110 · pied piper on November 7, 2006 11:57 PM · Direct link · “Quote”(?)

Winning the House is a much bigger deal than winning the Senate. The ability to introduce and get votes on bills is what sets the political agenda in Washington, and oversight authority to have hearings and get evidence is a huge deal. Also, the minority party in the Senate has more power than in the House, Senate Republicans as a whole are more moderate, and it takes 60 votes to get anything done in the Senate anyway so crossing 50 votes is important but not quite as consequential as it might seem.


 111 · Sahej on November 8, 2006 12:00 AM · Direct link · “Quote”(?)

CNN is putting Webb ahead!


 112 · siddhartha on November 8, 2006 12:00 AM · Direct link · “Quote”(?)

Webb ahead of Allen by 3,000 votes, per CNN.


 113 · Neel on November 8, 2006 12:01 AM · Direct link · “Quote”(?)

woohoo! webb w/ slight lead


 114 · Sahej on November 8, 2006 12:01 AM · Direct link · “Quote”(?)

lets go webb! lets go webb!


 115 · Paul on November 8, 2006 12:02 AM · Direct link · “Quote”(?)

cnn now reporting webb 50%, allen 49%, with 99% reporting... this will obviously come down to the recount.

carville is giddy... says his sources say missouri looking very good for the dems... meaning it would come down to montana in terms of dem control of senate...


 116 · vaishnavi on November 8, 2006 12:02 AM · Direct link · “Quote”(?)
Does that mean American's have become more conservative over the last decade or two?

well if you look at history, things go in cycles. the roaring twenties were followed by the great depression, the post-war fifties were followed by the free wheeling sixties. the nineties was an economically booming time, and now in the new millennium (2000s? is that what we call them?), we are in a time consumed by terrorism. so i don't know if america has become more conservative, but the hot button issues in our society right have a religious slant to them, which brings out the "traditional" side in people.


 117 · Salil Maniktahla on November 8, 2006 12:02 AM · Direct link · “Quote”(?)

oh, don't lose heart yet! From the VA site:

Totals
1,114,969 49.47% G F Allen
1,111,806 49.33% J H Webb Jr
24,907 1.11% G G Parker
2,225 0.10% (IG) Write Ins

2,253,907 Votes Cast
2386 of 2443 Precincts Reporting



 118 · ashvin on November 8, 2006 12:04 AM · Direct link · “Quote”(?)
as a friendly neighbor looking in, i am surprised the decisions on the house seem to be passing under the radar. comment?

I agree hairy_d. I think it's very important/exciting that the great John Conyers and Henry Waxman will be able to control their respective committees and finally be able to perform the check/balance functions that they're supposed to.


 119 · Ravi on November 8, 2006 12:06 AM · Direct link · “Quote”(?)

http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2006//pages/results/states/VA/index.html

Webb is slightly leading with 99%reported. I definitely think this one's headed for a recount.


 120 · desi_newyorker on November 8, 2006 12:06 AM · Direct link · “Quote”(?)
Winning the House is a much bigger deal than winning the Senate.

Not true! The Senate gets to confirm judges and other appointees, which is a huge deal in my book, especially if Bush gets another vacancy on the Supreme Court to fill.


 121 · pied piper on November 8, 2006 12:07 AM · Direct link · “Quote”(?)

Another win for the Abhi machine, this time across state lines -- the abortion ban ballot initiative in South Dakota goes down in flames.


 122 · No von Mises on November 8, 2006 12:10 AM · Direct link · “Quote”(?)
Does that mean American's have become more conservative over the last decade or two?

Since Nixon and it hasn't cooled since.


 123 · radha on November 8, 2006 12:10 AM · Direct link · “Quote”(?)

http://sbe.vipnet.org/nov2006/l_02.htm

hey, might be a stupid question, but why is there a discrepancy between the virgina state election board's numbers and what CNN's numbers are reporting?

Where does CNN get its numbers from?


 124 · Paul on November 8, 2006 12:12 AM · Direct link · “Quote”(?)

my understanding is that while it's technically true that only the house gets to introduce bills, in practice the senate will often author their own version of a bill, or even initiate new legislation which is then co-sponsored by someone in the house... it comes down to a formality.


 125 · Salil Maniktahla on November 8, 2006 12:15 AM · Direct link · “Quote”(?)
Another win for the Abhi machine, this time across state lines -- the abortion ban ballot initiative in South Dakota goes down in flames.

:-)

ahhh.

The VA race is too close to call. The VA site has Webb trailing by less than 2000 votes (1757 as of this moment, with a few precincts still waiting to report in). This is definitely going to the recount.

In TN, Shelby County (my home ground) is still counting votes. That one is close, too, though not nearly like VA. Ford is trailing Corker, but not a single Shelby County vote is in yet. Not sure what's up with that, either?


 126 · siddhartha on November 8, 2006 12:17 AM · Direct link · “Quote”(?)

According to CNN, Talent's lead in Missouri is down from 8% to 4%. Tester is well ahead in Montana.


 127 · Soshinoya on November 8, 2006 12:17 AM · Direct link · “Quote”(?)

hell yeah baby! GO DEMS!!! go to hell maccaca!


 128 · No von Mises on November 8, 2006 12:19 AM · Direct link · “Quote”(?)

Down with Conrad Burns!


Montana
November 08, 2006 - 12:02AM ET (i) = incumbent
U.S. Senate - 163 of 867 Precincts Reporting
Name Party Votes Pct
Tester, Jon Dem 55,807 55.79
Burns, Conrad (i) GOP 42,071 42.06


 129 · razib_the_atheist on November 8, 2006 12:20 AM · Direct link · “Quote”(?)

from kos.

Allen (R) 1,138,676
Webb (D) 1,141,052


 130 · RC on November 8, 2006 12:21 AM · Direct link · “Quote”(?)

Webb pulls ahead with 2370 votes ahead.
But wont be clear for 2 weeks atleast.

Salil,
There is definately hope. !!!!!!


 131 · pied piper, esq on November 8, 2006 12:22 AM · Direct link · “Quote”(?)
The Senate gets to confirm judges and other appointees, which is a huge deal in my book, especially if Bush gets another vacancy on the Supreme Court to fill.

That's a fair point -- I'd be the last person to soft pedal this issue. But to some extent, progressives have placed too much stock in the courts without having durable political majorities to sustain the litigation victories. Need to be thinking a bit more long term about all of this -- maybe a 15-20 year time horizon -- and I'm happy to have a foothold in the House to lay the groundwork for races in 2008, 2010, and beyond. Don't get me wrong -- I'd be happy with the Senate too, but that could easily flip in 2008 given the seats that are up that year (a big majority of them are GOP incumbents, as I recall).

while it's technically true that only the house gets to introduce bills, in practice the senate will often author their own version of a bill, or even initiate new legislation which is then co-sponsored by someone in the house... it comes down to a formality.

What you are describing is true about appropriations bills, but my point is that since each house sets its own legislative calendar on all bills, control of the House means that the Democrats can influence what gets voted on and what gets into the media news cycle. Not a formality at all, but a very big deal.


 132 · razib_the_atheist on November 8, 2006 12:23 AM · Direct link · “Quote”(?)

go webb, go!!!


 133 · Janeofalltrades on November 8, 2006 12:24 AM · Direct link · “Quote”(?)

Essentially if the difference is less than 11,000 votes between Webb & NotMacaca the state pays for the recount and it could take upto 10 days. There will be a recount regardless at this rate. If somehow the difference pulls ahead of 11K and the loser contests he has to pay for the recount. Either ways this is going to be one big mess going into tomorrow unless Allen concedes.


 134 · razib_the_atheist on November 8, 2006 12:26 AM · Direct link · “Quote”(?)

he won't concede, nor should he. the system will work. and we'll win, either we'll know about more problems with the system, or we'll see that it is working right. let the recount begin.


 135 · pied piper on November 8, 2006 12:27 AM · Direct link · “Quote”(?)

Best I can tell from this site, everything is in except for one precinct from Arlington, one from Fairfax, three from Loudon, three from Prince William, and one from Virginia Beach. And maybe one or two from counties with very few people in them.

Things are looking very good indeed -- at least for regulation time.


 136 · Manju on November 8, 2006 12:28 AM · Direct link · “Quote”(?)
But to some extent, progressives have placed too much stock in the courts without having durable political majorities to sustain the litigation victories.

trudat. take away roe v wade and put abortion in play again, and i dare say the dems would have been the party in power. law of unintended consequences.


 137 · kee on November 8, 2006 12:28 AM · Direct link · “Quote”(?)
the system will work. and we'll win

damn cockcy macacas


 138 · siddhartha on November 8, 2006 12:29 AM · Direct link · “Quote”(?)

I agree with Razib #134. VA state law provides a recount if the difference is less than 1 percent. I think that's a good thing.


 139 · Sriram on November 8, 2006 12:30 AM · Direct link · “Quote”(?)

Are there still any Maryland peeps who are worried that Cardin has never actually projected to have been in the lead but has been called as the winner?


 140 · Salil Maniktahla on November 8, 2006 12:31 AM · Direct link · “Quote”(?)
What you are describing is true about appropriations bills, but my point is that since each house sets its own legislative calendar on all bills, control of the House means that the Democrats can influence what gets voted on and what gets into the media news cycle. Not a formality at all, but a very big deal.

Yup. :-)

The House wins are not trivial at all...in fact, I'd bump up that point on oversight committees and conducting hearings: the Bush administration must tread very carefully from now on, and cover its tracks from the last four years even more than they have already.

Oh, and hey. Nancy Pelosi is now