After the election last week, in which Democrats took over control of both the House of Representatives and the Senate, many people (including much of the Indian press) were running around screaming “the sky is falling.” What would this mean for the precious India-U.S. nuclear deal? Let’s take a look at the reality behind the hype. Outlook India reports today:
The United States Senate is expected to debate and vote this week on a bill that would permit civilian nuclear cooperation with India.
Congressional and diplomatic sources told this correspondent the long-awaited vote could take place on Wednesday or Thursday. The United States Congress commenced its lame-duck session on Monday and the U.S.-India nuclear deal features prominently on the agenda…On Monday, both Republicans as well as Democrats indicated their intention to take up the India nuclear deal in the lame duck session. But before that they will vote on a bill that makes permanent trade relations with Vietnam.
In his remarks Senate Majority Leader Bill Frist, a Republican, said, “This week, the Senate agenda will focus on completing the remaining appropriations bills. And in the days and weeks ahead, we’ll also need to consider the nomination of Bob Gates as Secretary of Defence, Vietnam trade legislation, and the U.S.— India civilian nuclear technology bill, among others.”
Mr. Frist’s Democratic counterpart, Senate Minority Leader Harry Reid, said, “We have our mind on concluding the appropriations bills and the very important nuclear agreement with the largest democracy in the world, India… [Link]
So the Democrat and Republican leadership are both on record as supporting this bill but both seem like they have a lot of domestic items on their plate they need to first take care of in the lame duck session, especially since Bush is fleeing going on a long trip to Asia in a few days. Not so fast though. Many arms control experts are recommending changes to the bill before it gets approved:
Arms control advocates urged changes in a U.S.-India nuclear cooperation agreement on Tuesday as the U.S. Senate prepared to resume action on the long-stalled deal……Meanwhile, a new report by the Congressional Research Service, which examines issues for Congress, found that while India does not want Iran to have nuclear weapons, New Delhi’s “views of the Iranian threat and appropriate responses (to that threat) differ significantly from U.S. views…” [Link]
Here is a succinct summary of their main concern:
“It is clear that on the issue of preventing Iran from going nuclear, and on the crucial issue of nonproliferation, India’s record is not encouraging,” said U.S. Rep. Ed Markey, a Democratic leader of the U.S. House of Representatives task force on nonproliferation.
The 18 arms control advocates, in a letter to senators, said that without amendments, the proposed legislation before the Senate “would have far-reaching and adverse effects on U.S. nonproliferation and security objectives…” [Link]
Now, if Congress is too bogged down with domestic issues this week to get to a vote on this then this is what would happen next:
Failure to pass the measure in a short session after the elections would require new legislation to be introduced next year, delaying exports from nuclear-industry suppliers such as Fairfield, Connecticut-based General Electric Co. and Pittsburg- based Westinghouse Electric Co. Still, the agreement has bipartisan U.S. support, which should allow the measure to eventually go through, Shashank said….“There would not be any direct kind of impact that would be deemed to be negative because the India-U.S. nuclear deal has largely bipartisan support,” C. Uday Bhaskar, an independent strategic analyst, said in New Delhi today. [Link]
Betting on the possibility that this will make it to the floor on Wednesday, the Indian lobby is taking out an ad in Roll Call, the congressional newspaper:
On Wednesday, the IASLC plans to run a full-page advertisement in Roll Call, a congressional newspaper, urging the Senate to pass the bill without any killer amendments. The advertisement will be signed by IASLC supporters from national veterans organizations. “We have been overwhelmed by the support we received from veterans organizations, Indo-American leaders and other Americans who are concerned about U.S. national security and have expressed to their Senators the need to have this bill passed before the 109th Congress adjourns,” said Mr. Kapur. [Link]
If you take a look at the ad you will see the tactic that the IASLC has decided to use in trying to persuade Congress, “on behalf of Indian Americans,” that they should support this deal. The headline reads: Veterans groups representing millions of veterans urge Congress to pass U.S. India Nuclear Initiative NOW because it serves the future security of America.
The way I see it I’d rather not have legislation rushed through without studying it carefully. We’ve had way too much of that for at least the last six years. If this legislation doesn’t get passed now because Congress is busy with domestic issues, I don’t think it is the end of the world if it gets resurrected next year. The Indian strategic analyst I quoted above doesn’t think it’s that big a deal either. Bottom line from my perspective: don’t believe people that tell you that one American political party is better for India than the other and that your vote as a U.S. citizen should therefore hinge on such considerations.
