Bringing in Nawaz Sharif makes him look good. Sharif was strengthening Sharia prior to his departure and in a recent interview with BBC in London was evasive when asked if he would continue where he left off if returned to power. So now we get the fundamentalist, albeit one with designs that don't go beyond India & Afghanistan, that we were promised if Musharaff were to restore democracy.

My wild speculation ( before this article came out ) was:
- Sooner or later,Benazir would be installed as the puppet Premier.Nawaz Sharif not so much because of his past animus with Mush

-Mush would continue to wield the power behind the throne.I expected him to give up the Presidency and not the role of Army Chief

- Benazir would agree in return for having all charges against her husband dropped
- This would have quelled any move to criticize him as a military ruler + would have ensure continued US support

Guess I was off - or maybe not ! Let's see ...

the likely winner is going to be........nawaz sharif.
mushy cannot play benazir and sharif against each other, since he so publicly has made an alliance with lady bhutto.
as a matter of fact, sharif is already portraying himself as the true democrat, by claiming that, he did not comprimise with the [much disliked in pakistan] dicktator.

Are there any examples in history where a military dictator yielded power to his opponents partially and peacefully?

There were tensions/fights between civilian President and PM in 90s. So chances of this arrangement succeeding are very low.

comprimise with the [much disliked in pakistan] dicktator

anecdote, is he universally disliked by all Pakistanis, or more by the fundamentalists? Just wondering.

amit, according to some polls, majority of pakistanis disapprove of mushy. now it is for you to deduce, whether the majority is fundamentalist or not.
p.s. in my book, a monotheist is a fundamentalist.

amit, according to some polls, majority of pakistanis disapprove of mushy.

Amit, I would be curious to know which polls you're referring to.

Amardeep, #7 should be for anecdote, not moi. :)

amardeep,

http://www.new-pakistan.com/issue%2033/Musharraf's%20popularity%20declining.html

Anecdote, thanks, I hadn't seen that poll. It's not that recent, but the sample size is good, and the numbers seem solid.

Again, this is just speculation, but I have a feeling that the numbers may shift once Sharif and Bhutto return -- and people start to remember how bad both leaders were during their time in office! The sense of frustration with Musharraf will also go down now that he's taking off the uniform.

no more whining from Benazir Bhutto about this and that.

i don't have enough detailed knowledge about pakistani politics to comment on the predictions, but i'm very interested to see how this whole thing plays out. amardeep, thanks for posting on this developing situation.

that's right, amardeep--folks may be tired of musharraf, but they're not so impressed with the bb/nawaz alternatives, either. the shame of all this is no new leadership has ever been cultivated or nurtured, and neither bb nor nawaz is willing to let go.
re: your point #4: well, there are some promotions/retirements expected in the army's upper echelons in the coming weeks.

amardeep -"... and people start to remember how bad both leaders were during their time in office!"

if only the sub-continent remembered!

Musharraf realizes that neither Sharif nor Bhutto are likely to beat him in an open election, especially if he pits one against the other and the opposition parties are divided.

i think this is the most right on prediction of all. from me talking to pakistani friends, they love musharraf. but just don't want another fidel wannabe as their leader.

i think musharraf realizes so and,

he stands to gain the stamp of democratic respectability on the world stage

I think Benazir has damaged herself very badly by being seen to negotiate with Musharraf, and so openly at that. If the NYT can print that the ISI chief Gen Kiyani is himself involved in the negotiations, you can bet her opponents will use it to claim that she is now a complete puppet, and what is more, that will probably be both credible and true. She will also have had Musharraf drop the corruption cases against her, and that will damn her further, perhaps compromise her irretrievably in the eyes of the public. She will be helped, on the other hand, by the fact that Aitzaz Ahsan, who acted as the lawyer for Chief Justice Chaudhry, in the case arising from the 'reference' issue and emerged with enhanced public stature - is in her party, the Pakistan People's Party.

Sharif looks good (literally, with a new toupe) for being seen as having stood up to Mushy. The sad fact is, however, that both he and BB will be controlled by the ISI, if either makes it back. It's all a bit too much, for the country's intelligence agency to literally be kingmaker like this. And whether it's a puppet government by a mafia of feudal barons or a mafia of industrial robber barons - that's the choice Pakistanis will have, while the military and the ISI continue to be the puppet masters.

Chachaji, you appear to have a case of blame-the-ISI-for-everything-itis. But anyway:

Sharif looks good (literally, with a new toupe).

I thought the same thing. In fact, he looks a little like Al Gore in some of the pictures.

Mian Nawaz Sharif from February 2003 and 'Quaid' Nawaz Sharif today.

I wonder when and under what circumstanbces Zia Ul Haq gave up his uniform? I was a kid in the 80s growing up in India and never recall seeing him in military uniform. It would be interesting to draw parallels between Zia's reign and that of and Musharaff's... Let's see... Zia had the Soviets, Musharaff has Al Qaeda. Zia hanged Bhutto, Musharaff banished Sharif and Benazir. Zia held a referendum, as did Musharraf.. to legitimize themselves. Zia appointed Junejo as the puppet PM, Musharaff appointed Jamali. I'm sure the constitutional machinations were similar but don't know enough about these in either era.

I wonder when and under what circumstanbces Zia Ul Haq gave up his uniform? I was a kid in the 80s growing up in India and never recall seeing him in military uniform.

General Zia-ul-Haq often was seen in full military uniform, even after 1984 referendrum.

General Zia-ul-Haq often was seen in full military uniform, even after 1984 referendrum.

So it seems... he never had to give it up. So has the law changed now that they're saying he can't be president and be in uniform? If Zia appeared in uniform, presumably he was still army chief?

There may have been a change in the law about whether Army chiefs can be President, but the main thing is the need for legitimacy. I think Musharraf himself feels the need for it at a personal level more than Zia ever did. And, mainly from that feeling, he had promised to retire from the Army at the end of 2004, while continuing in his current term as President. Then he 'changed his mind', and continued in both offices. However, while Zia was Army chief, the Pakistan Army had just one 4-star general, Zia himself. Now the Pakistan Army has 3 generals of 4-star rank, including Musharraf and the two Generals Ahsan and Ehsan. The day-to-day Army stuff is handled by these two generals.

So the impetus for Musharraf to retire from the Army comes mainly from the imperative of 'keeping his word'. But don't expect things to change too much just because he retires from the Army, the influence of the Army on Pakistan is very deep, and in some ways, he is only its most visible face.

There is one complication, though. As the Pakistan Constitution currently stands - he can't run for public office within two years of retiring. Yet, somehow, perhaps from what was called the 'Legal Framework Order', a ruling from the Supreme Court allowed him to be President while he was Army Chief. So 'one way out' would be for him to get himself elected President (the propriety of an election whose results are known beforehand seems occasionally lost on the people who suggest this) and then immediately resign as Army Chief, and continue as President.

On a different note - and to correct the impression I left in my earlier comment regarding Aitzaz Ahsan and BB - they appear to be moving apart - he expressed himself on BBC Urdu last night against the idea of any deal with Musharraf, and when BB was asked to react to it today by the same outlet - she said she was making the deal 'for democracy', not for herself, and that she enjoyed the support of her party, while anyone who disagreed was free to go their own way!

"to return and context in those elections"

Surely you mean contest

Every time I hear about this, I shudder at the thought of one of those incompetent, corrupt, self-serving, slimy, thieving assholes coming back into power. I'm going to vote for Imran Khan.