South Bengal is also in the trajectory. I am really worried because my parents are in a traveling in a train right now.

Sending out a prayer for any one in harm's way. Hope everyone is safe.

The Government of W. Bengal only announced a warning today, hours before the cyclone hit. Unlike Bangladesh, where evacuations were taking place since yesterday from the coastal Sundarbans area, the Indians complacently believed that this cyclone, like most others, would swerve towards Bangladesh. It has, and spared Kolkata so far, but given that 4 million unofficially live in the Indian side of the Sundarbans, hopefully the damage and loss of life won't be too great. What I've seen and heard so far talking to government officials is a chilling reminder that lives in India -- particularly of the poor -- don't have the much value. Shameful.

Extremely worrisome, and thanks for blogging it, Amardeep.

Almost exactly 37 years ago, on 12 November 1970, a major cyclone hit (what is now) Bangladesh. That cyclone killed about a half-million people, and huge parts of the coast and many coastal islands were simply washed out to sea.

Bangladesh was then East Pakistan, but in just about a year, had become Bangladesh. That cyclone had major geopolitical consequences:

The Awami League, the largest political party in East Pakistan, headed by Sheikh Mujibur Rahman, swept to a landslide victory in the national elections in December 1970, partially as a result of dissatisfaction over the failures of the relief efforts of the national government. The elections for nine national assembly and eighteen provincial assembly seats had to be postponed until January 18 as a result of the storm.

The government's handling of the relief efforts helped exasperate the bitterness felt in East Pakistan, swelling the resistance movement there. Funds only slowly got through, and transport was slow in bringing supplies to the devastated regions. As tensions increased in March, foreign personnel evacuated due to fears of violence. The situation deteriorated further and developed into the Bangladesh Liberation War in March. This conflict widened into the Indo-Pakistani War of 1971 in December and concluded with the creation of Bangladesh. This is one of the first times that a natural event helped to trigger a civil war.

What I've seen and heard so far talking to government officials is a chilling reminder that lives in India -- particularly of the poor -- don't have the much value. Shameful.

fsowallah, the same could be said of FEMA after Katrina-- they just don't talk as freely (except Barbara Bush), perhaps because the stigma of racism nowadaya inhibits somewhat.

The same could be said of FEMA both before and after Katrina.

Almost exactly 37 years ago, on 12 November 1970, a major cyclone hit (what is now) Bangladesh. That cyclone killed about a half-million people, and huge parts of the coast and many coastal islands were simply washed out to sea.

Holy Shit! This is the first time I am hearing about it.

well, at least it is slamming into the sundurban. it's the least populated stretch of the coast.

well, at least it is slamming into the sundurban. it's the least populated stretch of the coast.

Not sure what you mean here, razib. As I understand it, the Sunderbans is the name given to the delta of the Ganga-Brahmaputra system - and more particularly the part of the delta closest to the actual sea. The cyclone could hardly hit anywhere else. Perhaps it is not heading to make a direct hit on Kolkata, but as Amardeep points out above, the rest of the delta is also densely populated.

is on a trajectory that will envelop the heavily populated southern coast before it moves on toward the capital, Dhaka

The vast majority of the population lives in the broad Ganges Delta, which sits at about 1 meter above sea level. The storm surge is likely to inundate everything within miles of the coast

Chachaji, I had no idea. Its hard to imagine that an event of that magnitude doesn't even a place in our collective social consciousness.

BTW, does anyone ever think that the weather is racist? ;)

BTW, does anyone ever think that the weather is racist? ;)

the weather must hate whyte people. northern europe has a horrible climate...

Holy Shit! This is the first time I am hearing about it.

The cyclone of 1970 (and the refugee crisis) was the occasion for George Harrison's "Concert for Bangladesh" at Madison Square Garden and introduced the concept of a group of celebrity musicians coming together for a big charity concert. It was the original LiveAid.

As I understand it, the Sunderbans is the name given to the delta of the Ganga-Brahmaputra system

no. the mangrove forest. the delta proper is much larger than the mangrove forest. the area to the east of the sundarbans is much more densely populated and is subject more active riverine dynamics. the area around the mouth of the jumna river is much more active and so mangroves don't flourish.

here is a map of population density. note the southwest part of the country, that's where the sundarbans are
http://eobglossary.gsfc.nasa.gov/Library/GlobalWarmingUpdate/Images/bangladesh_population_eleva.gif

and the worst case scenario for bangladesh would have been if the cyclone had hit those islands at the mouth of the jumna. they're flat even for bangladesh (a tsunami could theoretically even sweep over hundreds of thousands of people from one end of the island to another!), and people living on them are generally more marginal to begin with so they have less recourse and flimsier shelter.

Not sure what you mean here, razib. As I understand it, the Sunderbans is the name given to the delta of the Ganga-Brahmaputra system - and more particularly the part of the delta closest to the actual sea. The cyclone could hardly hit anywhere else. Perhaps it is not heading to make a direct hit on Kolkata, but as Amardeep points out above, the rest of the delta is also densely populated.

oh, re-reading your comment about the sundarbans. it is true for india, not bangladesh. the difference is due to the fact that the river system's active portion has over geological time shifted from the west to the east, which results in alternative downstream ecologies (i think the water outflow is big enough with the combined primary flow of the ganges + brahmaputra and meghna that brackishness of the soil isn't much of an issue in eastern bengal).

Thanks razib!

the weather must hate whyte people. northern europe has a horrible climate...

"Some 10 million of the country’s 140 inhabitants live along this coast."

What the? That makes no sense whatsoever.

"What the? That makes no sense whatsoever."

If you honestly didn't understand that then your comprehension skills are as bad as the writer's proofreading ability.

Well bun, you tell me how you can pull 10 million out of 148 mmm'kay?

I am trying to gather updated information from news sites and blogs. So far only one casualty reported and 16 missing. I am sure the toll will be many more. More information will some as the day breaks.

Some links here:

Sidr strikes Bangladesh - news updates

Cyclone Sidr: Blogger experiences and reactions

Jasmine, I wouldn't call Northern Europe's weather temperate. It's miserable much of the time and people do suffern from seasonal depression.

Temperate is more like South Carolina, Georgia, Italy, Spain, Greece, etc.

As I understand it, the Sunderbans is the name given to the delta of the Ganga-Brahmaputra system no. the mangrove forest. the delta proper is much larger than the mangrove forest. the area to the east of the sundarbans is much more densely populated and is subject more active riverine dynamics.

Technically, Ganga-Brahmaputra delta is the largest delta in the world, and it's fan sediments are even bigger than the size of peninsular India. The fan sediments extends even east of Sri Lanka in Bay of Bengal. Sunderbans is the mangrove part of it, at the mouth of the delta.

Any satellite picture will you show you that.

Yes, the cyclone of 1970 was one of the catalysts for formation of Bangladesh, and George Harrison's concert.

Apparently it landed with 156 MPH wind intensity. 140000 people died in a similar storm in 1991. Hopefully, the government's evacuation plan will minimize casualties - they've had plenty of advanced warning. May Shiva protect the poor and needy!

It seems to be dying out now. Satellite images.

Holy Shit! This is the first time I am hearing about it.

The cyclone of 1970 (and the refugee crisis) was the occasion for George Harrison's "Concert for Bangladesh" at Madison Square Garden and introduced the concept of a group of celebrity musicians coming together for a big charity concert. It was the original LiveAid.

Amazing-- Preston, you make an important point-- many more people in the rest of the world remember the Bangladesh Concert than who it was for.

It has mellowed but still caused harm in Bangladesh.
I am amazed how such mass evacuations take place in such little time or Do they ?

Amrita, you're right, but the US Administration's response to Katrina is not relevant to the post about this particular cyclone and doesn't make the Indian Govt.'s lack of preparation any less shameful. They took a big risk in not preparing adequately and got lucky the cyclone made landfall where it did.

It amazes me what one little country can endure over the years - wars, droughts, cyclones, floods, monsoons

many more people in the rest of the world remember the Bangladesh Concert than who it was for.

I first heard it sometime in the early 80s - but here it is already on youtube, with nearly a hundred thousand views just in the last 9 months... And BTW, since this clip includes all the credits - Bob Dylan, Ravi Shankar, Alla Rakha, Eric Clapton, some of the other (by then) ex-Beatles, were also in it.

Plus these two from the same concert, which have together had more than a million views.

And since last year, there's The George Harrison Fund for the UNICEF.

Thirty-five years after George Harrison's 'Concert for Bangladesh' raised over $15 million for UNICEF, the late Beatle has been inducted into the Madison Square Garden 'Walk of Fame'.

The concert was the first of its kind and is recognized as the inspiration behind more recent humanitarian fundraising ventures like 'Band Aid' and 'Live Aid'.

Hope Bangladesh gets through this one without anything like casualty figures from 1970 or 1991.

NatashaIt amazes me what one little country can endure over the years - wars, droughts, cyclones, floods, monsoons

I agree, it amazes me too....

And not merely a war - but a civil war plus massacres of almost unbelievable scale - 1970-71.

More than just a drought - but famine of almost unimaginable devastation - 1974-75.

Your map shows Arunanchal Pradesh in China. You go to Jail.

Here is the latest from the BBC - two hundred estimated to be dead.

More than 200 people have been reported dead after a powerful cyclone battered southern Bangladesh, levelling villages and uprooting trees.

Officials have warned that the death toll could rise and that the extent of the damage is still unclear.

Hundreds of thousands of people were evacuated or sought safe shelter before the storm hit the coast, but some were left behind.

The storm was weakening early Friday as it passed through the capital, Dhaka.

With the worst of the storm thought to be over, attention now turns to assessing the damage and distributing aid, the BBC's Mark Dummett reports from Dhaka.

Why does it seem as if Bangladesh is eternally being attacked by the forces of nature?

Hi Bunty,
1) the Microsoft-TWC map is one of the few weather motion-radar maps available to the public
2) I thought Arunachal Pradesh was horse-shoe shaped in between Bhutan and Myanmar, and does, in fact, go North before it curves down.
3) Anybody have any news on what has happened since? (thanks Vishal for your previous link)

Amrita, you're right, but the US Administration's response to Katrina is not relevant to the post about this particular cyclone and doesn't make the Indian Govt.'s lack of preparation any less shameful. They took a big risk in not preparing adequately and got lucky the cyclone made landfall where it did.

Thanks fsowallah. I'm saying, the bad attitude to the poor is not restricted to or characteristic of Indians, or Third World people, much as that is widely held to be the case by many people in America, who seem to use this notion to justify bombing the living in those places or sanctioning them into submission.

Its actually a healthier climate. Statistically animals living in temperate climates grow bigger and taller than their tropical counterparts. And increased sun contributes to higher rates of cancer and diseases because in the hot weather germs reproduce faster. Plus all of the major weather systems inevitably hit non white areas- from Katrina to the recent Mexican storms.

Not, however, your average pahari tattoo.........

ANTI-CYCLONE TECHNOLOGY RESEARCH
The new anti-hurricane technology is development. PCT/SK2006/000003 (WO/2006/085830) A METHOD OF AND A DEVICE FOR THE REDUCTION OF TROPICAL CYCLONES DESTRUCTIVE FORCE
Antihurricane Technology Fund
www.ahtfund.org

The Awami League, the largest political party in East Pakistan, headed by Sheikh Mujibur Rahman, swept to a landslide victory in the national elections in December 1970, partially as a result of dissatisfaction over the failures of the relief efforts of the national government. The elections for nine national assembly and eighteen provincial assembly seats had to be postponed until January 18 as a result of the storm.

The government's handling of the relief efforts helped exasperate the bitterness felt in East Pakistan, swelling the resistance movement there. Funds only slowly got through, and transport was slow in bringing supplies to the devastated regions. As tensions increased in March, foreign personnel evacuated due to fears of violence. The situation deteriorated further and developed into the Bangladesh Liberation War in March. This conflict widened into the Indo-Pakistani War of 1971 in December and concluded with the creation of Bangladesh. This is one of the first times that a natural event helped to trigger a civil war.

Chachaji - True, that bitterness helped Mujeeb to a landslide victory but creation of Bangladesh was due to ineptness of the Army generals and who didn't realize the consequences. Later it was proved when Bangladeshi Army killed their father of the nation; so as usual Army was treating the civilian leaders as their pawns but the whole nation had to bear it. In my view Dictator and his cronies can handled the situation better by bringing both politicians (Mujeeb and Bhutto) to some deal like a confederate style government. It was a fact that none of them can able to run the other half due almost no support there. It was the first elections in 23 years and Pakistan didn’t even have the constitution (another incompetence of Army rulers) so nobody knew what they are getting into. But seeing the Pakistan’s Army’s history; I doubt they were ready to give up the throne and as usual treating the junta as their slaves; it was only after their shameful defeat that they gave war trodden cashless treasury broken country to a civilian leader.

Tropical Cyclone Sidr Devastates Bangladesh; 496 Dead, UNB Says
2007-11-16 09:28 (New York)

By Bibhudatta Pradhan and Heather Langan
Nov. 16 (Bloomberg) -- Tropical Cyclone Sidr slammed into
the Ganges Delta with winds of 250 kilometers (155 miles) per
hour, causing devastation in Bangladesh before weakening over
northern India.
More than 496 Bangladeshis were killed and thousands
injured, the United News of Bangladesh said on its Web site
today. At least 1,000 fishermen were missing, the United Nations
Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs said today
in an e-mailed statement. Some 3.2 million people fled to the
country's highlands or went to shelters, the UN agency said.
``Information collection on casualty and damage figures is
still very much in the early stages and scarce,'' the UN said.
``Communication on islands is cut off.''
The cyclone swept in from the Bay of Bengal, crossing the
Khulna-Barisal coast yesterday at about 9:30 p.m. local time,
the U.S. Navy's Joint Typhoon Warning Center said. Sidr
destroyed homes and livestock, uprooted trees and damaged crops
as it made landfall, Priya Jyoti Khisa, a director in
Bangladesh's disaster management bureau, said in a telephone
interview from Dhaka.
Bangladesh and northeastern India are regularly hit by
cyclones that form in the bay, bringing flooding and devastation
to local communities. Bangladesh stepped up its storm
preparations after a cyclone that hit the South Asian nation in
1970 left 500,000 people dead.
Twelve districts, including Khulna, Patuakhali, Barisal and
Bholad, were ``severely affected'' by Sidr, Khisa said.
The storm's center was 61 kilometers south of Shillong,
India, at 8:30 a.m. local time today, the U.S. center said in
its final advisory on Sidr. The system's maximum sustained winds
had weakened to 37 kph as it moved northeastward.

Storm Surge

Sidr brought a storm surge as high as 6 meters (20 feet) to
one of the most low-lying areas on the planet. The storm was 500
kilometers wide before coming to shore.
In India, the outer bands of Sidr passed over West Bengal
without causing damage, D. Pal, joint secretary for disaster
management at the state government, said in a telephone
interview from Kolkata.
There were no ``adverse effects,'' K.L. Mishra, deputy
general of the disaster mitigation authority in neighboring
Orissa state, said by telephone.
More than 30,000 people were evacuated from Indian coastal
areas before the storm arrived, he said.

Excerpt from original post: Have the preparations been sufficient to fend off major loss of life? I hope so.
And from comment #3 by foswalla: What I've seen and heard so far talking to government officials is a chilling reminder that lives in India...don't have the much value.

I have a question for mutineers on the above expressed thoughts/concerns:

Us brown folk living outside of desh, are we internalizing some of the condescending paranoia we constantly hear from white-driven mass media that sorrounds us?

I hear repeated expressions of gloom and doom scenarios about over-population, SARS, AIDS, nuclear war, water wars, earthquakes, tsunami, floods, religious/ethnic strife,... the list goes on. Through it all, desh seems to continue chugging along (mind you, I am not discounting the loss of life suffered - but in essence, the sky never seems to fall down like predicted). This cycle seem to be playing out again with the current "OMG, CAT 4 Cyclone" exclamations.

Given this, why are we desis so down on desh's ability to handle the challenges thrown at it. I can totally get when a white guy/gal says "how will those poor souls survive", because they don't get (or don't want to get) desh's resiliency - and being condescending is sorta part and parcel of being wealthier. But we brown folk, shouldn't we be able to give our brethren in desh a bit more credit/break?

According to AP, Cyclone Devastates Bangladesh; 1,100 Die.

Watch Cyclone Video here.

This is so f*ing sad. I can't believe this. According to Bloomberg, the death toll is at a staggering 2000. :-(

More shocking news

Bangladesh Red Crescent Society Sunday said the death toll from cyclone Sidr may touch 10,000 (official death toll surpassed 2,200 Sunday and a government official declared the disaster "a national calamity").

Incidents like these make us stop and revaluate our lives, being grateful for just being able to sleep safely at night and having food to eat. It also indicates that as those more fortunate, we have a stronger obligation to lend out our help to those who have not had the same privileges as us.

It seems at this point in terms of helping the cyclone victims, the best thing to do would be to donate to charities that are helping out the victims in Bangladesh. However, individually we can also help by encouraging others to donate and become informed. With holiday season just starting up, many companies match charity donations or often even participate in choosing a charity to donate to. I encourage all of you to speak to your colleagues, classmates, friends, and family to donate and help the victims in Bangladesh.

Now for some positive news: How Bangladesh Survived the Cyclone.

Mainly, this is because Bangladesh has gotten a lot better at dealing with cyclones, which build in the Bay of Bengal and surge north to hit the country with dreadful regularity. Over the past decade especially, the country's early warning and preparedness systems have improved considerably. Officials evacuated some 3.2 million people who lived along the coastline in the days before Sidr hit, and stockpiled relief supplies and rescue equipment. Soon after the storm passed, the Bangladeshi government quickly began distributing 4,000 metric tons of rice, along with thousands of tents and blankets, and deployed more than 700 medical teams to the worst-affected areas.

I have a feeling that us poor brownfolk are gonna do OK.

I think we put links to charity that are helping the cyclone victims in Bangladesh.

Mercy Corp