With the DNC approaching, it is a good time to examine one very relevant recent piece of news that will surely impact my generation. The U.S. Census recently reported that by 2042, “Americans who identify themselves as ethnic and racial minorities” (NYT) will outnumber those who do not. This was earlier than the previously predicted 2050, and it is a trend that could have profound influences on all elements of American society. Here is a short summary of the demographic changes:

The census calculates that by 2042, Americans who identify themselves as Hispanic, black, Asian, American Indian, Native Hawaiian and Pacific Islander will together outnumber non-Hispanic whites. Four years ago, officials had projected the shift would come in 2050.
The main reason for the accelerating change is significantly higher birthrates among immigrants. Another factor is the influx of foreigners, rising from about 1.3 million annually today to more than 2 million a year by midcentury, according to projections based on current immigration policies.
“No other country has experienced such rapid racial and ethnic change,” said Mark Mather, a demographer with the Population Reference Bureau, a research organization in Washington. (NYT)

Jeffrey S. Passel, from the Pew Hispanic Center, says, “Almost regardless of what you assume about future immigration, the country will be more Hispanic and Asian.” When it comes to Asian-Americans, “People who say they are Asian, with their ranks soaring to 41 million from 16 million, will make up more than 9 percent of the population, up from 5 percent” (NYT). Here is the brief Wall Street Journal analysis of how this will impact politics:

The growing share of retired white baby boomers are more likely to be concerned about issues like pensions and health care for themselves and their parents. The growing share of minorities will be concerned about issues like education and job growth. “You always get that generational shift, but now there’s a racial layer over it,” says Mr. Passel.
Shifting demographics may change everything from local and national elections to bilingual education and the rationale behind affirmative-action plans. Already, fast-growing states in the Sunbelt and West are seeing signs that shifting demographics could alter state politics. Barack Obama, the presumptive Democratic presidential nominee, is campaigning hard in Nevada and Colorado — two states that were carried by President Bush in 2004 but have grown more Democratic as the states have added more young and minority voters.

Articles like these, as well as this interesting article about the possible effect of increasing minority voter registration, emphasize that increasing minority populations in the United States will trend Democratic in voting patterns. The fact that, according to the Census, a significant majority of young Americans will identify themselves as non-Hispanic white by 2042, will certainly change politics in America if youth involvement continues to increase in elections, and young minority voters continue to vote overwhelmingly Democrat (see same CIRCLE link).

Honestly though, I don’t see this as a major tectonic shift in American demographics, but rather the continuation of a general historical trend - as this Week in Review piece notes, there was a time in our country’s history when “Irish Catholics, Italians, Eastern Europeans and even some Germans who arrived in droves in the United States” were considered cultural and political outsiders. Now, as this podcast notes, the descendants of many of those immigrants identify themselves as “American.”

What these demographic changes do mean is that our country’s cultural and political scene will subtly change over the upcoming decades. One of the most unique aspects about American society is how the different values and ideals that the various ethnic groups of the country hold eventually become part of the “American Idea.” As the number of people who identify themselves as Asian-American increase, ideas that are important to Asian-Americans, such as the importance of education, amongst many other priorities, will hopefully also increase in prominence across the nation. What do you think these demographic changes will mean for the country and for the South Asian community?

In the end, Harvard sociology professor Nathan Glazer has some observations and predictions in the Week in Review Article that I would say are definitely on target:

Professor Glazer predicted that in the decades to come, racial and ethnic distinctions would be further blurred by intermarriage (about one in three grandchildren of Hispanic immigrants marry non-Hispanic spouses; by 2050, nearly 1 in 20 Americans are expected to classify themselves as multiracial)….
“I don’t think a change such that the census category of ‘non-Hispanic white’ becomes a minority in 30 years is so momentous,” he said. “By then we may not even be using that census category and long before then people will be asking why Asians are still considered a ‘minority’ of any kind.”

Examples of “minority-majority” communities are already present through the U.S., in places such as New Mexico, Texas, California, Los Angeles, and New York City. Note: A book about immigration and assimilation trends that is often cited and looks as if it would be valuable reading to gain an understanding of the assimilation and interaction of different immigrant groups (despite it being quite dated) is Nathan Glazer and Daniel Patrick Moynihan’s “Beyond the Melting Pot,” which I am definitely going to look at to learn more about this subject.