There are currently as many elected African American governors as Indian American governors: one. For those of you that stopped reading Nate Silver’s FiveThirtyEight.com the day after the election, you are missing out. Today he had a wonderfully geeky post about why there are so few African American Senators (none actually unless you count Burris) and Governors. His analysis also offers some insight that might be of interest to the South Asian American community:

When the House of Representatives convenes tomorrow, it will contain 39 African-American members, not including non-voting delegates in places like the Virgin Islands and the District of Columbia. This number, representing about 9 percent of the Congress, falls somewhat short of the fraction of African-Americans in the population as a whole — a truly representative House would have about 55 black members — but perhaps not dramatically so. The situation at first glance would appear to be much better than it was prior to 1990, when there were generally only about 20 black members in the House at any given time.

The districts these 39 Congressmen serve, however, are not very representative at all. All 39 contain a higher percentage of African-Americans than the population as a whole, ranging from Keith Ellison’s district in Minneapolis, which is just barely more black than the national average, to Jesse Jackson Jr.’s on the South Side of Chicago, which is 68 percent African-American. About 64 percent of the members — 25 of 39 — come from districts that contain an outright black majority. The districts are also much more Democratic than the country as a whole, with an average PVI of D +25; only Sanford Bishop’s district in Georgia, which has a PVI of D+2, is anywhere close to the national average. [Link]

So here it is in a nutshell. Assuming that experienced African American representatives (a reasonable number of which there are) would make suitable candidates to run for the U.S. Senate, why aren’t there more black Senators or Governors? The answer is that because the base of these potential candidates is largely African American, many of them never develop messages targeted to an audience any wider than this base. Doing so might cause them to lose some “cred” with that base. Thus, forced to compete statewide with this self-inflicted handicap, their campaigns never get off the ground. Obama was a rare exception because he realized intuitively what the data shows and made sure to appeal to all demographics and not just his perceived base, even if it meant being called “not black enough.” To the vast majority of South Asian American candidates the above is so obvious it doesn’t need mentioning. Our ethnic base is so small it would never be enough to solely rely on (except maybe in Jersey or Fremont). From the beginning, desi candidates have to work hard to appeal to all groups and their issues. Despite hard-to-pronounce names and brown skin this “tactic” helps us beat the odds that seem to stymie African American candidates.

Silver goes on to show that if you combine the two most prominent factors, the size of the African American population and the propensity of a state to vote for a particular party, the five most likely states to see an African American Senator or Governor are:

State Black PVI Prob

———————————————————

Maryland 28.9 D+9 15.2%

Mississippi 37.4 R+8 9.0%

Louisiana 31.6 R+6 5.6%

Georgia 29.8 R+6 4.3%

Delaware 20.7 D+7 4.3%

So Maryland has the greatest chance but it is still just ~15%.

Now lets take a look at the states with the largest Asian population (including desis):

Asian population by state

Probability dictates that Bobby Jindal (a desi that represents his/her whole state) should have come from California, Illinois, or New York. Instead he came from Louisiana, about the most unlikely of places for a desi to be elected Governor based on race being an overriding factor. Right from the beginning Jindal downplayed his ties to his race in order to be seen as an everyman. Ashwin Madia almost won his district in Minnesota back in November. Granted, that wasn’t a seat that represented the whole state but he came really close despite a miniscule Asian American population in that state. His campaign focused heavily on his military and all-American background. My point? Don’t be surprised or turned off if future desi politicians downplay their “desiness” to get elected. In realpolitik appealing to other ethnic groups sometimes goes hand in hand with distancing yourself from your own in both obvious and subtle ways (including modifying your name). The real trick seems to be obtaining donations from wealthy Uncles and Aunties while simultaneously downplaying your culture as much as possible.