Academics love nothing more than a bit of intellectual arbitrage. Take a theory developed for one purpose, apply it to a different subject, and voila - twice the intellectual bang for your buck! And since in this case the topic is that of Osama bin Laden’s location, and bin Laden is still at liberty 7.5 years after 9/11, why not take a stab at the problem?

In this case, Thomas W. Gillespie and John A. Agnew, two professors of Geography at UCLA used techniques developed to track endangered species, and information on “bin Laden’s last known location, cultural background, security needs, declining health, limited mobility and height” to predict that there is a “90 percent chance that bin Laden is in Kurram province in Pakistan’s Federally Administered Tribal Areas, most likely in the town of Parachinar which gave shelter to a larger number of Mujahedin during the 1980s.” [link]

The paper comes with some pretty pictures (like those above) and even goes so far as to identify three buildings where Osama might be located.

Of course, we know that if Osama was in any of those three buildings he would have moved (but maybe he knew that’s what you would think so he stayed! but maybe he thought you thought that … ) so this is more of a demonstration of technique than anything else. The authors are trying to say that they’ve got some useful tools, so if the CIA has some better information, they’re welcome to use this technique to generate their own maps.

The more interesting question is whether you think that the paper’s key assumptions hold:

Distance-decay theory would predict that he is closest to the point where he was last reported and, by extension, within a region that has a similar physical environment and cultural composition (that is, similar religious and political beliefs). For instance, the further he moves from his last reported location into the more secular parts of Pakistan or into India, the greater the probability that he will find himself in different cultural surroundings, thereby increasing the probability of his being captured or eliminated. Island biogeographic theory predicts that bin Laden is in a larger town rather than a smaller and more isolated town where extinction rate would be higher. [link]

Personally, I don’t see why he would want to restrict himself to nearby locations and in particular why he would want to stay in areas similar to the ones where he had stayed previously. If he’s smart, he’ll randomize all the factors he has control over, rather than staying in his comfort zone. It would be interesting to see the results of applying this theory retrospectively to see whether it properly postdicts the locations where other fugitives were found, based on the information available before hand. Only then can we see if the assumptions are reasonable, or for the birds.