Oscar season is upon us once again, and with it the opportunity to make some money by betting on the home team. Gambling on the Oscars is as venerable tradition as gambling on Diwali, making this the third biggest betting day of the year.
The sole uncontroversial topic about Slumdog is that it’s the odds on favorite tonight for both best picture and best director. The only surer bet out there is Heath Ledger for best supporting actor (you have to put down $25 to see even $1 of return) and he’s dead!
Furthermore, as we get close and closer to Oscar time, the odds keep improving in these two categories. Right now, Paddypower is giving 1-14 odds for best picture (bet $14, make $1 profit if Slumdog wins) and Danny Boyle 1-10 odds for best director (bet $10, make $1 profit if Boyle wins).
Boylesports is offering better odds for bestpicture and worse odds for best director, but in both cases, the certainty of a Slumdog win is higher today than it was just a few days ago.
Even at these odds, Slumdog is still a good investment. King of Elections Quantgeekery Nate Silver says that Slumdog has a 99% chance of getting best picture and a 99.7% chance of getting best director, estimates based on how well previous awards (which Slumdog has swept) predict the Oscars.
The chance to win big might also stem the anti-Slumdog tide of public opinion in India. Right now there is already over Rs. 2 billion ($41 million) staked on the film, so a lot of Indians will be rooting for the same film that they objected to.
Of course, the categories that matter the most to your average Indian aren’t the two I’ve discussed, but the musical ones: Rehman for best score and Jai Ho for best song, since these would be seen as a vindication of India rather than criticism of it (as the movie is perceived). I can’t find odds in these categories though, they’re too minor to be posted on the internet.
Normally, I would have said that a movie about India without a white protagonist in it would be (whole wheat) toast. But given how far this movie has advanced, I firmly believe that this will be SDM FTW. There has been a major media push, with Patel, Pinto and Kapoor ubiquitous on major media outlets.
In addition, the movie is timed brilliantly. A film about true love triumphing over poverty, adversity and evil is just the sort of film that the academy needs during this recession. Plus, at a time when we’re hearing the word “trillions” bandied about, a film about millions is … quaint and charming.
Lastly, the film has a secret weapon in the form of Rubina Ali and Azharuddin Mohammed Ismail, two of the lovable moppets who played Latika and Salim at the start of the movie, and who do live in the Bandra slums:
Ten-year-old Azharuddin’s mother says they have been homeless for a while: “We have been squatting on this government park since the time our hutments were demolished over a year ago and despite showing the right documents to the authorities we have not been allotted our room [a one-room tiny flat].” [link]
Director Boyle has promised to do the right thing and take responsibility for funding the whole of his young stars’ education, a fact that I’m certain the publicists have made sure the academy voters understand.
